Spreading disease with transport-related infection
Spreading disease with transport-related infection
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jtbi.2005.08.005
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发表时间：
2006-04-07
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Saito, Y
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cui, JA;Takeuchi, Y;Saito, Y
区域间的交通运输是影响疾病暴发的主要因素之一。它将改变疾病的动态，并爆发感染，即使传染病将在每个城市灭绝，而没有与交通有关的感染。本文提出了一个数学模型，以说明由于人口扩散和交通工具上的感染，这种疾病在两个地区（或城市）之间传播的动力学。此外，我们的分析表明，如果传染病爆发，在每个地区造成地方病的情况下，与运输有关的感染加剧了疾病的传播，从这个意义上说，病人的绝对和相对规模都增加了。这表明，一旦发现传染病，加强对旅客的限制是非常必要的。(c)2005爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
Transportation among regions is found as one of the main factors which affect the outbreak of diseases. It will change the disease dynamics and break infection out even if infectious diseases will go to extinction in each city without transport-related infection. In this paper, a mathematical model is proposed to demonstrate the dynamics of such disease propagation between two regions (or cities) due to the population dispersal and infection on transports. Further, our analysis shows that transport-related infection intensifies the disease spread if infectious diseases break out to cause an endemic situation in each region, in the sense that both the absolute and relative size of patients increase. This suggests that it is very essential to strengthen restrictions of passengers once we know infectious diseases appeared. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.