To Blame or to Support? Large-scale Insurgent Attacks on Civilians and Public Trust in State Institutions
To Blame or to Support? Large-scale Insurgent Attacks on Civilians and Public Trust in State Institutions
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DOI：
10.1093/isq/sqab021
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发表时间：
2021-03-31
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Sundberg, Ralph
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Deglow, Annekatrin;Sundberg, Ralph
尽管有大量文献探讨恐怖袭击对西方民主国家公众对国家机构的态度的影响，但人们对此类事件在武装冲突背景下产生的影响知之甚少。我们通过探讨 2012 年塔利班袭击阿富汗喀布尔市平民的态度影响来弥补这一差距。我们测试了两个相互竞争的假设：“集结效应”假设，根据该假设，个人在暴力袭击后增加了对现有机构的信任；“问责”假设，根据该假设，个人通过撤回信任来惩罚无法提供安全的国家机构。利用一项准实验，将袭击前接受采访的个人与袭击后接受采访的个人进行比较，我们发现，与集会效应假设相符的袭击增加了喀布尔市居民对几个国家机构的信任。
While there is a substantial body of literature on the consequences of terror attacks on public attitudes toward state institutions inWestern democracies, little is known about the impact that such events have in the context of armed conflict. We address this gap by exploring the attitudinal effects of a 2012 Taliban attack on civilians in Kabul City, Afghanistan. We test two competing hypotheses: the "rally-effect" hypothesis according to which individuals increase their trust in incumbent institutions in the aftermath of violent attacks and the "accountability" hypothesis according to which individuals punish state institutions for their inability to provide security by withdrawing trust. Leveraging a quasi-experiment that compares individuals interviewed before the attack to individuals interviewed thereafter, we find that the attack-in line with the rally-effect hypothesis-increased trust in several state institutions among residents of Kabul City.