Measuring the costs of African animal trypanosomosis, the potential benefits of control and returns to research
Measuring the costs of African animal trypanosomosis, the potential benefits of control and returns to research
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/s0308-521x(98)00086-9
复制
发表时间：
1999-01-01
影响因子：
6.6
通讯作者：
de Leeuw, PN
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kristjanson, PM;Swallow, BM;de Leeuw, PN
本文讨论了有关衡量新畜牧技术潜在生产力收益和国际畜牧研究回报的问题。该方法适用于许多畜牧生产限制和技术，使用地理信息系统（GIS）将生物物理牛群模拟模型与经济剩余模型在空间上联系起来。研究的具体问题是非洲牛的锥虫病，潜在的研究产品是多成分疫苗。结果表明，仅就肉类和奶类生产力而言，改善锥虫病控制在非洲每年的潜在效益就达 7 亿美元。目前，这种疾病每年给畜牧生产者和消费者造成约 13.4 亿美元的损失，这还不包括粪便和牵引力等间接畜牧效益。考虑到采用期为 12 年、最大采用率为 30%、贴现率为 5%、研究在 10 年内成功的概率为 30%，疫苗研究的净现值估计至少为 2.88 亿美元，内部收益率为 33%，效益/成本比为 34:1。 (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. 保留所有权利。
This paper addresses issues surrounding measurement of the potential productivity gains from new livestock technologies and the returns to international livestock research. The approach, applicable to many livestock production constraints and technologies, uses geographic information systems (GIS) to spatially link a biophysical herd simulation model with an economic surplus model. The particular problem examined is trypanosomosis in cattle in Africa, and the potential research product is a multi-component vaccine. The results indicate that the potential benefits of improved trypanosomosis control, in terms of meat and milk productivity alone, are $700 million per year in Africa. The disease now costs livestock producers and consumers an estimated $1340 million annually, without including indirect livestock benefits such as manure and traction. Given an adoption period of 12 years, a maximum adoption rate of 30%, a discount rate of 5%, and a 30% probability of the research being successful within 10 years, the net present value of the vaccine research is estimated to be at least $288 million, with an internal rate of return of 33%, and a benefit/cost ratio of 34:1. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.