Terrestrial contribution to the heterogeneity in hydrological changes under global warming
Terrestrial contribution to the heterogeneity in hydrological changes under global warming
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DOI：
10.1002/2016wr018607
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发表时间：
2016-04
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
Sanjiv Kumar;F. Zwiers;P. Dirmeyer;D. Lawrence;R. Shrestha;A. Werner
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Sanjiv Kumar;F. Zwiers;P. Dirmeyer;D. Lawrence;R. Shrestha;A. Werner
这项研究调查的水文变化，这表明一个更大的可检测性比干旱地区的异质性的物理基础。湿润地区是指大气需求小于降水量的地区（能量有限），而干燥地区是指大气需求大于降水量的地区（水有限）。北美西部的长期径流趋势和全球尺度耦合模式相互比较项目第5阶段（CMIP 5）气候模式的分析表明，水文变化的可检测性具有地理异质性。我们应用Budyko框架和CMIP 5的最新气候模型数据来量化陆地水文变化的敏感性和可检测性。Budyko框架将降水量划分为蒸散量和径流量。我们发现，陆地水文敏感性是3倍以上的地区，水文循环是能量有限，而不是水的限制。这个额外的源（陆地部分）有助于在能量有限的区域中提高30-40%的可探测性。我们还量化了集水效率参数变化的贡献，这些参数反对全球变暖情景中蒸发需求增加的影响。在Budyko框架中纳入集水效率参数的变化可将21世纪全球径流变化预测的干偏差减少88%。
This study investigates a physical basis for heterogeneity in hydrological changes, which suggests a greater detectability in wet than dry regions. Wet regions are those where atmospheric demand is less than precipitation (energy limited), and dry regions are those where atmospheric demand is greater than precipitation (water limited). Long‐term streamflow trends in western North America and an analysis of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models at global scales show geographically heterogeneous detectability of hydrological changes. We apply the Budyko framework and state‐of‐the‐art climate model data from CMIP5 to quantify the sensitivity and detectability of terrestrial hydrological changes. The Budyko framework quantifies the partitioning of precipitation into evapotranspiration and runoff components. We find that the terrestrial hydrological sensitivity is 3 times greater in regions where the hydrological cycle is energy limited rather than water limited. This additional source (the terrestrial part) contributes to 30–40% greater detectability in energy‐limited regions. We also quantified the contribution of changes in the catchment efficiency parameter that oppose the effects of increasing evaporative demand in global warming scenarios. Incorporating changes to the catchment efficiency parameter in the Budyko framework reduces dry biases in global runoff change projections by 88% in the 21st century.