Diarrheal disease risk in rural Bangladesh decreases as tubewell density increases: a zero-inflated and geographically weighted analysis.
Diarrheal disease risk in rural Bangladesh decreases as tubewell density increases: a zero-inflated and geographically weighted analysis.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1186/1476-072x-10-41
复制
发表时间：
2011-06-15
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Emch M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Carrel M;Escamilla V;Messina J;Giebultowicz S;Winston J;Yunus M;Streatfield PK;Emch M
本研究调查了2002年至2004年孟加拉国Matlab地区管井用户密度对霍乱和志贺氏菌病事件的影响。家庭一级的人口、卫生和水基础设施数据被纳入当地地理信息系统数据库。构建地理加权回归（GWR）模型，以确定整个研究区域的关系的空间变化。运行零膨胀负二项回归模型，以同时测量疾病事件幅度增加的可能性和零霍乱或志贺氏菌病事件的可能性。本研究的目的是检查管井密度对线虫病的发生和线虫病发病率的大小的影响。在Matlab中，管井密度较大的家庭更有可能报告零霍乱或志贺氏菌病事件。霍乱和志贺氏菌GWR模型的结果表明，管井密度的影响是空间平稳的，使用非空间统计方法是适当的。通过增加管井密度增加家庭饮用水数量，有助于减少孟加拉国农村地区霍乱和志贺氏菌病事件的报告。我们的研究结果表明，管井安装和获取地下水在减少发展中国家的疟疾事件的重要性。
This study investigates the impact of tubewell user density on cholera and shigellosis events in Matlab, Bangladesh between 2002 and 2004. Household-level demographic, health, and water infrastructure data were incorporated into a local geographic information systems (GIS) database. Geographically-weighted regression (GWR) models were constructed to identify spatial variation of relationships across the study area. Zero-inflated negative binomial regression models were run to simultaneously measure the likelihood of increased magnitude of disease events and the likelihood of zero cholera or shigellosis events. The aim of this study was to examine the effect of tubewell density on both the occurrence of diarrheal disease and the magnitude of diarrheal disease incidence. In Matlab, households with greater tubewell density were more likely to report zero cholera or shigellosis events. Results for both cholera and shigellosis GWR models suggest that tubewell density effects are spatially stationary and the use of non-spatial statistical methods is appropriate. Increasing the amount of drinking water available to households through increased density of tubewells contributed to lower reports of cholera and shigellosis events in rural Bangladesh. Our findings demonstrate the importance of tubewell installation and access to groundwater in reducing diarrheal disease events in the developing world.