Wind speed trends over Turkey from 1975 to 2006
Wind speed trends over Turkey from 1975 to 2006
复制标题
DOI：
10.1002/joc.3810
复制
发表时间：
2014-05
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Filiz Dadaser‐Celik;E. Cengiz
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Filiz Dadaser‐Celik;E. Cengiz
本研究通过分析来自206个气象站32年（1975-2006年）的数据，研究了土耳其风速的时空动态。使用Mann-Kendall趋势检验和无趋势预白化程序确定年、季和月平均风速的趋势。通过计算森氏斜率估计趋势的强度。对风速变化的可能原因进行了讨论。分析表明，土耳其大部分站点（73%）在32年期间的平均风速在1.6至3.3 m s−1之间。从1975年到2006年，72%的台站年平均风速有下降趋势。62%的下降趋势在0.05水平具有统计学显著性。在206个监测站中，只有16%的监测站发现了明显的上升趋势。年平均风速数据的变化率平均为−0.014 m s−1 year−1。在月平均风速数据中检测到的趋势大多是向下的，平均强度在-0.007和-0.017 m s-1年-1之间。1975-2006年期间确定的土耳其上空风速趋势的方向和强度与地球上许多其他地区的风速趋势相似。土耳其风速的变化与大气环流模式和气温的变化密切相关。与其他两个因素相比，与表面粗糙度和数据质量变化相关的影响较小。
This study examines the spatial and temporal dynamics of wind speeds over Turkey by analysing data from 206 weather stations for a 32‐year period (1975–2006). Trends in annual, seasonal, and monthly average wind speeds were determined using the Mann–Kendall trend test with the trend‐free pre‐whitening procedure. The strengths of trends were estimated by calculating the Sen's slope. The possible causes of wind speed changes were discussed. The analysis showed that the majority of the stations (73%) in Turkey had average wind speeds between 1.6 and 3.3 m s−1 during the 32‐year period. From 1975 to 2006, 72% of stations had downward trends in annual average wind speeds. Downward trends were statistically significant at the 0.05 level for 62%. Significant upward trends were detected in only 16% of 206 stations. The rate of change in annual average wind speed data was on average −0.014 m s−1 year−1. The trends detected in monthly average wind speed data were mostly downward with an average strength between −0.007 and −0.017 m s−1 year−1. The directions and strengths of wind speed trends identified for the 1975–2006 period over Turkey are similar to the trends detected in wind speeds in many other regions over the earth. The changes in wind speeds in Turkey are most strongly related with the changes in general circulation patterns and air temperatures. The effects associated with changes in surface roughness and data quality are minor compared to other two factors.