PREDICTABILITY OF THE DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET BY BIFFEX..
PREDICTABILITY OF THE DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET BY BIFFEX..
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BIFFEX 对干散货运输市场的可预测性..
DOI：
10.1080/03088839600000068
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发表时间：
1996
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Hak
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Young;Hak
当 BIFFEX（波罗的海国际货运期货交易所）于 1985 年成立时，许多批评者对其未来的成功持悲观态度。尽管BIFFEX已经生存了八年，但最近的一项实证研究表明，与许多专家的预期和建议不同，BIFFEX在航运界并没有广泛用作对冲工具。原因之一可能是 BIFFEX 可能不被认为能够预测现货市场，因此，投资者可能对对冲效果持怀疑态度。本文的目的是通过检验 BIFFEX 在干散货航运市场长达六个月的可预测性来检验这一论点。在实际情况之前，可解释功效范围从一个月提前的 90% 到六个月提前的 23%。
When BIFFEX (Baltic International Freight Futures Exchange) came ijnto existence in 1985, many critics were perssimistic that it would have a successful future. In spite of the eight year's surival of BIFFEX, a recent empirical study shows that BIFFEX is not widely used a s a hedging tool ijn the shipping community, unlike the expectations and recommendations of many experts. one reason could be that BIFFEX may not be considered peredictive of the physical market and, therefore, investors might be suspicious of the hedging effect. The objective of this paper is to test this argument by exdamining the predicatability of BIFFEX in the dry bulk shipping market up to six months. Prior to the real situation, the explainable power ranges from 90% in a one-month advance to 23% in a six-month advance.