Summertime precipitation in Hokkaido and Kyushu, Japan in response to global warming
Summertime precipitation in Hokkaido and Kyushu, Japan in response to global warming
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DOI：
10.1007/s00382-021-05983-7
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发表时间：
2021-07
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Daichi Takabatake;M. Inatsu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Daichi Takabatake;M. Inatsu
我们分析了一个名为“未来气候变化政策决策数据库”（d4PDF）的大型集成数据集，该数据集包含60公里分辨率的大气环流模式输出和20公里分辨率的日本地区动力降尺度。以北海道和九州的差异为重点，描述了6 - 7 - 8月水汽和降水的增加及其对全球变暖的响应；在目前的气候中，北海道凉爽干燥，九州炎热潮湿。结果表明，除九州西部地区外，比湿度的增加几乎遵循克劳修斯-克拉珀龙关系，但稳定环流的变化抑制了降水的增加。北海道的+ 4k气候将像现在的九州气候一样炎热潮湿。急流南移和波宁高压东移引起的环流变化减弱了日本中部包括九州东部上空的水汽通量辐合。瞬态涡旋活动抵消了湿度的增加，使得北海道的水汽通量辐合和降水变化不大。由于热带气旋对总降水的贡献最多为10%，因此热带气旋数量的减少并不能解释预测的降水变化。
We analyzed a large ensemble dataset called the database for Policy Decision Making for Future climate change (d4PDF), which contains 60-km resolution atmospheric general circulation model output and 20-km resolution dynamical downscaling for the Japanese domain. The increase in moisture and precipitation, and their global warming response in June–July–August were described focusing on the differences between Hokkaido and Kyushu; Hokkaido is cool and dry and Kyushu is hot and humid in the current climate. The results suggested that the specific humidity increased almost following the Clausius Clapeyron relation, but the change in stationary circulation suppressed the precipitation increase, except for in western Kyushu. The + 4 K climate in Hokkaido would be as hot and humid as the present climate in Kyushu. The circulation change related to the southward shift of the jet stream and an eastward shift of the Bonin high weakened the moisture flux convergence via a stationary field over central Japan including eastern Kyushu. The transient eddy activity counteracted the increase in humidity, so that the moisture flux convergence and precipitation did not change much over Hokkaido. Because the contribution of tropical cyclones to the total precipitation was at most 10%, the decrease in the number of tropical cyclones did not explain the predicted change in precipitation.