Designing a monitoring system to detect signals to adapt to uncertain climate change
Designing a monitoring system to detect signals to adapt to uncertain climate change
复制标题
设计监测系统来检测信号以适应不确定的气候变化
DOI：
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.08.003
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
J. van Alphen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Haasnoot;Susan van ’t Klooster;J. van Alphen
适应性计划旨在预测未来不确定的变化，将低后悔的短期行动与长期适应选择相结合，如有必要。监测和及时发现相关变化以及关键过渡或临界点，对于确保成功和及时地执行和重新评估计划至关重要。虽然已经努力确定路标监测，问题仍然是如何设计一个信号监测系统，检测和预测（未来）的变化，以支持适应性规划。例如，在气候变化不确定的情况下支持与水有关的基础设施投资。哪些是值得监测的良好标志，如何明智地分析这些标志，以获得及时和可靠的适应信号？在本文中，我们提出了一个框架，用于设计和使用监测计划的一部分，动态自适应政策路径（DAPP）的方法，决策下的不确定性。我们使用以下标准来评估路标及其关键信号值：可测量性，及时性，可靠性，说服力和机构连通性。我们说明了基于信号监测系统的适应性计划开发的三角洲计划在荷兰的方法。
Adaptive plans aim to anticipate uncertain future changes by combining low-regret short-term actions with long-term options to adapt, if necessary. Monitoring and timely detection of relevant changes, and critical transitions or tipping points is crucial to ensure successful and timely implementation and reassessment of the plan. Although efforts have been made to identify signposts to monitor, the question remains how to design a signal monitoring system that detects and anticipates (future) change to support adaptive planning. For example, to support water related infrastructure investments under uncertain climate change. What are good signposts to monitor and how to wisely analyse them to get timely and reliable signals for adaptation? In this paper, we present a framework for designing and using a monitoring plan as part of the Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) approach for decision making under uncertainty. We use the following criteria to evaluate signposts and their critical signal values: measurability, timeliness, reliability, convincibility and institutional connectivity. We illustrate the approach based on the signal monitoring system for the adaptive plan developed by the Delta Programme in the Netherlands.