A decision-support framework for residential heating decarbonisation policymaking
A decision-support framework for residential heating decarbonisation policymaking
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DOI：
10.1016/j.energy.2023.126651
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发表时间：
2023-01
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Ishanki De Mel;Floris Bierkens;Xinyao Liu;M. Leach;Mona Chitnis;Lirong Liu;Michael Short
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ishanki De Mel;Floris Bierkens;Xinyao Liu;M. Leach;Mona Chitnis;Lirong Liu;Michael Short
为了实现碳排放最小化和应对气候变化的全球目标，住宅供暖系统的脱碳变得越来越重要。然而，随着能源成本的上涨，这对低收入家庭来说可能是一个巨大的挑战。这项研究提出了一种新的优化框架，通过将与技术相关的决策支持与政策决策相结合，帮助英国住宅供暖脱碳。该框架可以建议低碳供暖技术的优化改造和织物改进措施，如绝缘升级，以提高能源效率。同时，确定了支持低收入家庭和社会住房的赠款对投资费用的最佳财政贡献。它还包括分段线性化，以捕捉空气源热泵的详细操作，这些热泵将取代基于天然气的供暖系统，并评估每个住宅是否有资格获得赠款资金。一个由英国沃金的社会住房存量组成的大型案例研究已经被用来测试该框架。三种情景被用来评估现有技术和政策组合在实现当地减排目标方面的有效性，这些目标是以现有燃气供暖系统和绝缘措施的排放量为基准的。结果突显了现有英国拨款的局限性，因为这些拨款只能实现33.5%的减排，而不会给地方议会带来显著的额外投资成本。缺乏对安装热泵运行所需的热水箱的支持，是现有赠款的另一个主要限制。一个拟议的方案，引入了一个虚构的资金无限的赠款，揭示了更大的赠款捐款，预计将实现66.8%的减排，这超过了当地的目标。这些结果还表明，由于供暖系统的电气化，需要提供业务支助，以应付高得多的能源费用，特别是对低收入和/或燃料匮乏的家庭。总体而言，该框架是地方议会、政策制定者和其他利益相关者就负担得起的住宅供暖系统脱碳做出明智决定的有用工具。
The decarbonisation of residential heating systems has become increasingly important to meet the global goals of minimising carbon emissions and combating climate change. However, with rising energy costs, this can be a significant challenge for low-income households. This study presents a novel optimisation framework to aid the decarbonisation of residential heating in the United Kingdom by combining technology-related decision-support with policy decisions. The framework can recommend the optimal retrofit of low-carbon heating technologies and fabric improvement measures such as insulation upgrades for improving energy efficiency. Concurrently, the optimal financial contributions towards investment costs from grants supporting low-income households and social housing is determined. It also includes piecewise linearisations to capture the detailed operation of air source heat pumps, which are set to replace natural gas-based heating systems, and assesses the eligibility of each dwelling for grant funding. A large case study consisting of social housing stock in Woking, UK, has been used to test the framework. Three scenarios are used to assess the efficacy of existing technology and policy combinations to meet local emissions reduction targets, which are benchmarked against emissions from existing gas-based heating systems and insulation measures. Results highlight the limitations of existing UK grants, as these can only achieve an emissions reduction of 33.5% without incurring significant additional investment costs to the local council. The lack of support towards installing hot water tanks, which are required for the operation of heat pumps, is another major limitation in existing grants. A proposed scenario, which introduces a fictional grant with unlimited funding, sheds light on the much larger grant contributions expected to achieve an emissions reduction of 66.8%, which surpasses local targets. These results also suggest the need for operational support to cope with much higher energy bills, especially for low-income and/or fuel-poor households, due to the electrification of heating systems. Overall, the framework is a useful tool for local councils, policy makers, and other stakeholders to make informed decisions on the affordable decarbonisation of residential heating systems.