A warmer world will reduce tree growth in evergreen broadleaf forests: evidence from Australian temperate and subtropical eucalypt forests
A warmer world will reduce tree growth in evergreen broadleaf forests: evidence from Australian temperate and subtropical eucalypt forests
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DOI：
10.1111/geb.12171
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发表时间：
2014-08-01
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Prior, Lynda D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bowman, David M. J. S.;Williamson, Grant J.;Prior, Lynda D.
了解树木生长如何受到气候的影响对于预测森林将如何应对气候变化至关重要，但很少有跨越宏观气候梯度的树木生长研究。本研究的目的是将阔叶万年青树的单一谱系的生长与大陆尺度的气候变化相关联。位置澳大利亚的温带中温带桉树林，跨越纬度从23到43度S和115到153度E。方法我们编译和分析了一个数据集，包含大约50万个桉树直径的生长测量，从2409块永久性林地采集。这些地块的年平均降水量为558-2105毫米，年平均气温为6-22摄氏度。结果树木生长量随降水量的增加而增加，但在年平均降水量大于1400 mm时，树木生长量对降水量的响应逐渐减小，对温度的响应出现峰值，对水分的响应出现峰值，对温度的响应出现峰值，对水分的响应出现峰值，对温度的响应出现峰值，对水分的响应出现峰值，对水分的响应出现峰值。年平均气温为11摄氏度时生长最快，最热月份的最高气温为25-27摄氏度。低温直接限制了生长。高温主要是通过减少水的可用性来减少生长，但它们似乎也产生了直接的负面影响。我们最好的模型，其中包括最高温度的最温暖的月份和降水蒸发的比例，解释了28%的deviances.Main结论澳大利亚的温带eucalut森林的生产力可能会大幅下降，因为气候变暖，鉴于这些森林的87%，目前经历的平均年温度高于11摄氏度，其中最高的增长率进行了观察。这将减少碳固存，减缓野火等灾难性干扰后的恢复。
Aims Understanding how tree growth is influenced by climate is vital for predicting how forests will respond to climate change, yet there have been few studies of tree growth spanning macroclimatic gradients. The aim of this study is to correlate growth of a single lineage of broadleaf evergreen trees with continental-scale variability in climate.Location Australia's temperate mesic eucalypt forests, spanning latitudes from 23 to 43 degrees S and longitudes from 115 to 153 degrees E.Methods We compiled and analysed a dataset containing around half a million measurements of growth in eucalypt tree diameter, collected from 2409 permanent forestry plots. These plots spanned a range of 558-2105 mm mean annual precipitation and 6-22 degrees C mean annual temperature. Generalized additive models were used to study the relationship between growth in tree diameter and several temperature and water availability variables.Results Tree growth increased with precipitation, but with a diminishing response above a mean annual precipitation of 1400 mm. There was a peaked response to temperature, with maximum growth occurring at a mean annual temperature of 11 degrees C and maximum temperature of the warmest month of 25-27 degrees C. Lower temperatures directly constrain growth. High temperatures primarily reduced growth by reducing water availability, but they also appeared to exert a direct negative effect. Our best model, which included maximum temperature of the warmest month and the ratio of precipitation to evaporation, explained 28% of the deviance.Main conclusions The productivity of Australia's temperate eucalypt forests could decline substantially as the climate warms, given that 87% of these forests currently experience a mean annual temperature above 11 degrees C, where the highest growth rates were observed. This will reduce carbon sequestration and slow recovery after catastrophic disturbances such as wildfire.