Are people overoptimistic about the effects of heavy drinking?
Are people overoptimistic about the effects of heavy drinking?
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DOI：
10.1007/s11166-013-9172-x
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发表时间：
2013-08-01
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Xu, Yanzhi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Sloan, Frank A.;Eldred, Lindsey M.;Xu, Yanzhi
我们测试了酗酒者或酗酒者是否对这些活动带来的不良后果的可能性过于乐观，还是对这些可能性的预测相对准确。我们利用来自八个城市的调查数据，评估了主观信念与饮酒之间的关系。我们评估了对大量/酗酒的几个结果的信念的准确性：寿命缩短、肝病发作、饮酒与醉酒驾驶（DWI）之间的联系、酒后发生事故的可能性、在路上遇到醉酒司机的信念的准确性，以及酒后驾车的法律后果——从被拦下到被罚款和监禁。总体而言，没有实证支持乐观偏见假说。我们确实发现，大量饮酒的人往往对自己的驾驶能力和处理酒精的能力过于自信。然而，这种过度自信并不能转化为对大量饮酒后果的过度乐观。
We test whether heavy or binge drinkers are overly optimistic about probabilities of adverse consequences from these activities or are relatively accurate about these probabilities. Using data from a survey in eight cities, we evaluate the relationship between subjective beliefs and drinking. We assess accuracy of beliefs about several outcomes of heavy/binge drinking: reduced longevity, liver disease onset, link between alcohol consumption and Driving While Intoxicated (DWI), probability of an accident after drinking, accuracy of beliefs about encountering intoxicated drivers on the road, and legal consequences of DWI-ranging from being stopped to receiving fines and jail terms. Overall, there is no empirical support for the optimism bias hypothesis. We do find that persons consuming a lot of alcohol tend to be more overconfident about their driving abilities and ability to handle alcohol. However, such overconfidence does not translate into over-optimism about consequences of high levels of alcohol consumption.