Future projections of daily haze-conducive and clear weather conditions over the North China Plain using a perturbed parameter ensemble
Future projections of daily haze-conducive and clear weather conditions over the North China Plain using a perturbed parameter ensemble
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DOI：
10.5194/acp-22-7443-2022
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发表时间：
2022-06
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Shipra Jain;R. Doherty;D. Sexton;S. Turnock;C. Li;Z. Jia;Zongbo Shi;Lin Pei
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Shipra Jain;R. Doherty;D. Sexton;S. Turnock;C. Li;Z. Jia;Zongbo Shi;Lin Pei
抽象的。我们使用扰动参数集合(PPE)检验了中国平原北部冬季灰霾和晴朗天气条件的过去和未来的变化，并首次阐明了模式物理参数化对这些未来预测的影响。我们使用一个基于气象学的大尺度霾天气指数(HW；1)作为有利于灰霾天气的替代指标，并且HWI1可能会增加，而冬季NCP上晴朗天气(HWI1)的出现频率与对流层变暖和对流层中层较弱的西北风有关。我们还检查了有利于灰霾和晴朗天气的年际变率的变化，发现在未来一段时间内变率没有明显变化。我们发现模式物理参数对有利于雾霾天气和晴朗天气的气候学平均频率有明显的影响。对于21世纪中后期(2033年-2086年)，参数效应可以解释气候平均频率的∼80%的变化。这表明，不同的模式物理参数会导致模式平均气候的不同演变，特别是在21世纪末。因此，除了考虑初始化和多模式组合外，还需要考虑PPE，以获得更全面的可信未来预测范围。
Abstract. We examine past and future changes in both winter haze and clear weather conditions over the North China Plain (NCP) using a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) and elucidate the influence of model physical parameterizations on these future projections for the first time. We use a large-scale meteorology-based haze weather index (HWI) with values >1 as a proxy for haze-conducive weather and HWI 1) is likely to increase whereas the frequency of clear weather (HWI 1) during winter over the NCP is found to be associated with an enhanced warming of the troposphere and weaker northwesterlies in the mid-troposphere over the NCP. We also examined the changes in the interannual variability of the haze-conducive and clear weather and found no marked changes in the variability during future periods. We find a clear influence of model physical parametrizations on climatological mean frequencies for both haze-conducive and clear weather. For the mid- to late 21st century (2033–2086), the parametric effect can explain up to ∼80 % of the variance in the climatological mean frequencies of PPE members. This shows that different model physical parameterizations lead to a different evolution of the model's mean climate, particularly towards the end of the 21st century. Therefore, it is desirable to consider the PPE in addition to the initialized and multimodel ensembles to obtain a more comprehensive range of plausible future projections.