Effects of climate and land-use change on storm runoff generation:: present knowledge and modelling capabilities
Effects of climate and land-use change on storm runoff generation:: present knowledge and modelling capabilities
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DOI：
10.1002/hyp.326
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发表时间：
2002-02-15
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Bürger, G
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bronstert, A;Niehoff, D;Bürger, G
有若干迹象表明，土地覆被的变化影响了各种河流流域的水文状况。此外，气候变化对水文循环和河流集水区径流行为的影响近年来也得到了广泛讨论。然而，目前还不确定这些环境变化可能如何、多大程度上以及在何种空间尺度上影响暴雨径流的产生，从而影响河流的洪水排放。首先，本文概述了气候和土地利用变化对暴雨径流产生的可能影响。其次，它讨论了处理水文对气候和土地利用变化的反应的模型，包括全球环流模型的气候信息的缩小尺度和洪水预报模型代表土地利用条件的方式。最后，在德国中尺度集水区的两个模拟研究：第一个显示了气候变化对暴雨径流生产的可能影响，第二个土地利用变化的影响。版权所有（C）2002约翰威利父子有限公司
There are several indications that changes in land cover have influenced the hydrological regime of various river basins. In addition, the effects of climate change on the hydrological cycle and on the runoff behaviour of river catchments have been discussed extensively in recent years. However, it is at present rather uncertain how, how much and at which spatial scale these environmental changes are likely to affect the generation of storm runoff, and consequently the flood discharges of rivers. Firstly, this paper gives an overview of the possible effects of climatic and land-use change on storm runoff generation. Secondly, it discusses models dealing with the hydrological response to climate and land-use variations, including both the downscaling of climate information from global circulation models and the way flood forecasting models represent land-use conditions. Finally, two modelling studies of meso-scale catchments in Germany are presented: the first shows the possible impacts of climate change on storm runoff production, and the second the impacts of land-use changes. Copyright (C) 2002 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.