The Role of Air–Sea Coupling in Seasonal Prediction of Asia–Pacific Summer Monsoon Rainfall
The Role of Air–Sea Coupling in Seasonal Prediction of Asia–Pacific Summer Monsoon Rainfall
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DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-13-00190.1
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发表时间：
2013-07
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Jieshun Zhu;J. Shukla
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jieshun Zhu;J. Shukla
摘要本研究通过比较两个精心设计的模型实验（第一层（完全耦合模型）和第二层（具有指定海表温度的 AGCM））的季节预测，研究了海气耦合过程在亚太夏季季风降雨季节可预测性中的作用。在这些实验中，第 1 层和第 2 层预测均使用相同的 AGCM；来自第 1 层耦合预测的日平均海温被规定为第 2 层预测中的边界条件。两次预测都从 1982 年到 2009 年的 4 月开始，每个案例都有四名集合成员。使用的模型是气候预测系统第 2 版 (CFSv2)，它是国家环境预测中心 (NCEP) 当前用于季节到年际预测的气候预测模型。比较表明，二级预测不仅会产生较高的降雨偏差，还会在热带西北太平洋 (TWNP) 和一些沿海地区产生不切实际的高降雨变化。虽然那...
AbstractThis study examines the role of the air–sea coupled process in the seasonal predictability of Asia–Pacific summer monsoon rainfall by comparing seasonal predictions from two carefully designed model experiments: tier 1 (fully coupled model) and tier 2 (AGCM with prescribed SSTs). In these experiments, an identical AGCM is used in both tier 1 and tier 2 predictions; the daily mean SSTs from tier 1 coupled predictions are prescribed as a boundary condition in tier 2 predictions. Both predictions start in April from 1982 to 2009, with four ensemble members for each case. The model used is the Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), the current operational climate prediction model for seasonal-to-interannual prediction at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Comparisons indicate that tier 2 predictions produce not only higher rainfall biases but also unrealistically high rainfall variations in the tropical western North Pacific (TWNP) and some coastal regions as well. While th...