Herbarium specimens provide reliable estimates of phenological responses to climate at unparalleled taxonomic and spatiotemporal scales
Herbarium specimens provide reliable estimates of phenological responses to climate at unparalleled taxonomic and spatiotemporal scales
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DOI：
10.1111/ecog.06173
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发表时间：
2022-08
期刊：
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
Tadeo H Ramirez-Parada;I. Park;S. Mazer
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Tadeo H Ramirez-Parada;I. Park;S. Mazer
要了解气候变化对植物群落物候结构的影响，就需要测量各地区数千种共存物种的敏感性变化。植物标本馆的收藏提供了大量的资源来做到这一点，但也可能表现出偏见作为物候数据的来源。尽管普遍承认这些警告，验证植物标本为基础的估计物候敏感性对估计使用现场观察仍然是罕见的，范围有限。在这里，我们利用广泛的数据集的标本馆标本和美国国家物候网络在美国的21个物种的实地观察，并为每个物种，比较标本馆和现场为基础的估计预计在标准化温度条件下的开花高峰期，和敏感性的开花高峰期的地理和年际变化的平均最低温度（TMIN）。我们发现基于标本馆和基于田间的标准化峰值开花时间（r = 0.91，p < 0.001）以及对地理TMIN变化（r = 0.88，p < 0.001）和年际TMIN变化（r = 0.82，p < 0.001）的敏感性方向和幅度的估计值之间具有很强的一致性。这种一致性对于以下数据集之间的实质性差异是稳健的：1）在收集和物候监测点之间观察到的长期TMIN条件，2）在大多数物种的两个数据集所涵盖的时间段内观察到的年际TMIN条件。我们的研究结果表明，基于植物标本馆的敏感性估计是可靠的物种跨越广泛的多样性的生活史和生物群落，展示了它们的效用在广泛的生态环境，并强调植物标本馆收藏的潜力，使物候分析在分类和时空尺度尚未捕获的观测数据。
Understanding the effects of climate change on the phenological structure of plant communities will require measuring variation in sensitivity among thousands of co-occurring species across regions. Herbarium collections provide vast resources with which to do this, but may also exhibit biases as sources of phenological data. Despite general recognition of these caveats, validation of herbarium-based estimates of phenological sensitivity against estimates obtained using field observations remains rare and limited in scope. Here, we leveraged extensive datasets of herbarium specimens and of field observations from the USA National Phenology Network for 21 species in the United States and, for each species, compared herbarium- and field-based estimates of peak flowering dates expected under standardized temperature conditions, and of sensitivity of peak flowering time to geographic and interannual variation in mean minimum temperatures (TMIN). We found strong agreement between herbarium-and field-based estimates for standardized peak flowering time (r = 0.91, p < 0.001) and for the direction and magnitude of sensitivity to both geographic TMIN variation (r = 0.88, p < 0.001) and interannual TMIN variation (r = 0.82, p < 0.001). This agreement was robust to substantial differences between datasets in 1) the long-term TMIN conditions observed among collection and phenological monitoring sites and 2) the interannual TMIN conditions observed in the time periods encompassed by both datasets for most species. Our results show that herbarium-based sensitivity estimates are reliable among species spanning a wide diversity of life histories and biomes, demonstrating their utility in a broad range of ecological contexts, and underscoring the potential of herbarium collections to enable phenoclimatic analysis at taxonomic and spatiotemporal scales not yet captured by observational data.