An Empirical Model of Total Solar Irradiance Variation Between 1874 and 1988
An Empirical Model of Total Solar Irradiance Variation Between 1874 and 1988
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DOI：
10.1126/science.247.4942.556
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发表时间：
1990-02
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
P. Foukal;Judith Lean
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
P. Foukal;Judith Lean
本文给出了1874年至1988年间观测到的光球磁活动变化引起太阳总辐照度变化的经验模式。该模型很好地描述了1980至1988年间星载辐射计观测到的辐照度变化。它表明，自1945年左右以来，平均总辐照度一直在稳步上升，到目前为止，最大的峰值出现在1980年左右，预计在当前的第22太阳周期期间会出现另一个大峰值。但即使是这种上升是否也会对全球变暖产生重大影响还是个疑问，除非它在当前的能量平衡模型中产生的约0.02�C的温度上升严重低估了气候对太阳辐射变化的敏感性。
An empirical model of variations in the total solar irradiance caused by observed changes in photospheric magnetic activity between 1874 and 1988 is presented. The model provides a remarkably good representation of the irradiance variations observed by satellite-borne radiometers between 1980 and 1988. It suggests that the mean total irradiance has been rising steadily since about 1945, with the largest peak so far at about 1980 and another large peak expected during the current solar cycle 22. But it is doubtful whether even this rise can contribute significantly to global warming, unless the temperature increase of about 0.02�C that it produces in current energy balance models seriously underestimates the sensitivity of climate to solar irradiance changes.