Climatic impacts on winter wheat yields in Picardy, France and Rostov, Russia: 1973-2010
Climatic impacts on winter wheat yields in Picardy, France and Rostov, Russia: 1973-2010
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DOI：
10.1016/j.agrformet.2013.02.010
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发表时间：
2013-07-15
影响因子：
6.2
通讯作者：
Makowski, David
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Licker, Rachel;Kucharik, Christopher J.;Makowski, David
气候对冬小麦产量的影响在两个重要的全球粮仓-法国北方的皮卡第地区和俄罗斯南部的罗斯托夫州进行了研究。为每个地区建立了30年的气候学，并量化了1973年至2010年期间对作物发展至关重要的各种气候变量的变化幅度。使用“第一差异”分析，气候的方面，冬小麦产量最敏感的被确定和这些变量的变化对冬小麦产量趋势的影响进行了量化。在这两个区域，气候的一些方面以前所未有的速度发生了变化。1973年至2010年期间，夏季降水总量减少了61%，夏季最高气温在罗斯托夫上升了4摄氏度，而秋季降水总量减少了9%，春季最高气温在皮卡第上升了2.4摄氏度。此外，冬小麦产量与一些气候变量密切相关，尽管两个地区产量变化的最重要驱动因素不同。五月和六月的平均气温解释了49%（p
The influence of climate on winter wheat yields were examined in two important global breadbaskets-the Picardy Region of northern France and the Rostov Oblast of southern Russia. Thirty-year climatologies were established for each region and the magnitude of change between 1973 and 2010 was quantified for a variety of climate variables important to crop development. Using a "first differences" analysis, the aspects of climate that winter wheat yields have been most sensitive to were identified and the impact of changes in these variables on winter wheat yield trends was quantified. A number of aspects of climate have changed at unprecedented rates in the two regions. Between 1973 and 2010, summer precipitation totals decreased by 61% and maximum summer temperatures increased by 4 degrees C in Rostov, while fall precipitation totals decreased by 9% and maximum spring temperatures increased by 2.4 degrees C in Picardy. In addition, winter wheat yields were strongly correlated with a number of climate variables, although the most important drivers of yield variability differed between the two regions. May and June average temperatures explained 49% (p