Natural disasters and population mobility in Bangladesh
Natural disasters and population mobility in Bangladesh
复制标题
孟加拉国的自然灾害与人口流动
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1115944109
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发表时间：
2012-04-17
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Mueller, Valerie
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gray, Clark L.;Mueller, Valerie
在气候变化和最近发生的大规模自然灾害的背景下，环境变化对人类移徙的影响日益受到关注，但迄今为止，涉及这一问题的大规模和定量研究相对较少。我们研究了气候相关自然灾害对孟加拉国农村地区长期人口流动的影响，该地区特别容易受到环境变化的影响，使用了跨越15年的1700个家庭的纵向调查数据。多变量事件历史模型用于估计洪水和作物歉收对当地人口流动和长途迁移的影响，同时在不同尺度上控制大量潜在的混杂因素。结果表明，洪水对流动性的影响不大，在中等强度的情况下，对妇女和穷人的影响最为明显。然而，与洪水无关的作物歉收对流动性有很大影响，其中没有直接受影响但生活在受灾严重地区的家庭最有可能搬家。这些结果指出了另一种由灾害引起的迁移模式，这种模式认识到脆弱家庭迁移的重大障碍以及他们在当地的巨大适应能力。
The consequences of environmental change for human migration have gained increasing attention in the context of climate change and recent large-scale natural disasters, but as yet relatively few large-scale and quantitative studies have addressed this issue. We investigate the consequences of climate-related natural disasters for long-term population mobility in rural Bangladesh, a region particularly vulnerable to environmental change, using longitudinal survey data from 1,700 households spanning a 15-y period. Multivariate event history models are used to estimate the effects of flooding and crop failures on local population mobility and long-distance migration while controlling for a large set of potential confounders at various scales. The results indicate that flooding has modest effects on mobility that are most visible at moderate intensities and for women and the poor. However, crop failures unrelated to flooding have strong effects on mobility in which households that are not directly affected but live in severely affected areas are the most likely to move. These results point toward an alternate paradigm of disaster-induced mobility that recognizes the significant barriers to migration for vulnerable households as well their substantial local adaptive capacity.