A bio-economic 'war game' model to simulate plant disease incursions and test response strategies at the landscape scale
A bio-economic 'war game' model to simulate plant disease incursions and test response strategies at the landscape scale
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DOI：
10.1007/s12571-015-0524-z
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发表时间：
2016-02-01
期刊：
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Maharaj, Savi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Cook, David C.;Aurambout, Jean-Philippe;Maharaj, Savi
丧失对外来入侵物种的区域自由可能会对粮食安全造成严重影响，并给入侵应对管理人员带来巨大的责任。尽管入侵生态、监控技术有效性和人类行为存在严重不确定性，但它们还是做出了关键决定。我们提出了一个空间显式模型，它可以帮助响应管理者设计和测试虚拟世界中的管理策略，在这个虚拟世界中，失败的代价可以忽略不计。我们将该模型应用于一个基于群体的决策环境中，参与者在澳大利亚的一个仁果产区练习对虚构的疾病入侵做出反应。利用这一模式，应对管理小组能够就检疫区和销毁区的使用以及何时从根除工作中撤出资源制定出双方都满意的经验规则。
Loss of area freedom from invasive alien species can have serious food security implications and place huge responsibility on incursion response managers. They make critical decisions despite profound uncertainty surrounding invasion ecology, surveillance and control technology effectiveness and human behaviour. We propose a spatially-explicit model that can aid response managers in devising and testing management strategies in a virtual world where the costs of failure are negligible. We apply the model in a group-based decision setting in which participants practise responding to fictional disease incursions in a pome fruit production area in Australia. Using the model, the response management group was able to develop mutually satisfactory rules of thumb for the use of quarantine and destruction zones and for when to withdraw resources from eradication efforts.