Mortality Attributable to 9 Common Infections: Significant Effect of Influenza A, Respiratory Syncytial Virus, Influenza B, Norovirus, and Parainfluenza in Elderly Persons
Mortality Attributable to 9 Common Infections: Significant Effect of Influenza A, Respiratory Syncytial Virus, Influenza B, Norovirus, and Parainfluenza in Elderly Persons
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DOI：
10.1093/infdis/jis415
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发表时间：
2012-09-01
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Koopmans, Marion
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
van Asten, Liselotte;van den Wijngaard, Cees;Koopmans, Marion
背景由于常见的季节性病原体可能会导致大量的隐性死亡，我们估计了老年人因病毒和细菌而死亡的人数，每周实验室监测数据可靠。关于每周时间序列（1999-2007年）我们使用回归模型将65-74岁、75-84岁和≥ 85岁的个体的总死亡数关联起来，（250万人口）病原体循环-甲型流感（季节特异性）、流感B、呼吸道合胞病毒（RSV）、副流感病毒、肠道病毒、轮状病毒、诺如病毒、弯曲杆菌，和沙门氏菌-调整极端室外温度。甲型流感和RSV显著（P= 75岁），诺如病毒在≥ 85岁的人群中也有相关性。季节性病毒导致的死亡比例为6.8%（>= 85岁）、4.4%（75-84岁）和1.4%（65-74岁），但各年之间的变化很大。流感偶尔表现出较低的影响比其他一些病毒。与老年人死亡率相关的不同病原体的数量随着年龄的增长而增加。除甲型流感和RSV外，B型流感、副流感和诺如病毒也可能是老年人死亡的主要原因。
Background. Because there may be substantial hidden mortality caused by common seasonal pathogens, we estimated the number of deaths in elderly persons attributable to viruses and bacteria for which robust weekly laboratory surveillance data were available.Methods. On weekly time series (1999-2007) we used regression models to associate total death counts in individuals aged 65-74, 75-84, and >= 85 years (a population of 2.5 million) with pathogen circulation-influenza A (season-specific), influenza B, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), parainfluenza, enterovirus, rotavirus, norovirus, Campylobacter, and Salmonella-adjusted for extreme outdoor temperatures.Results. Influenza A and RSV were significantly (P= 75 years, and norovirus was additionally associated in those aged >= 85 years. The proportions of deaths attributable to seasonal viruses were 6.8% (>= 85 years), 4.4% (75-84 years), and 1.4% (65-74 years), but with great variations between years. Influenza occasionally showed lower impact than some of the other viruses.Conclusions. The number of different pathogens associated with mortality in the older population increases with increasing age. Besides influenza A and RSV, influenza B, parainfluenza and norovirus may also contribute substantially to elderly mortality.