Modeling Weather-Related Failures of Overhead Distribution Lines
Modeling Weather-Related Failures of Overhead Distribution Lines
复制标题
DOI：
10.1109/tpwrs.2006.881131
复制
发表时间：
2006-10
影响因子：
6.6
通讯作者：
Yujia Zhou;A. Pahwa;Shie-Shien Yang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yujia Zhou;A. Pahwa;Shie-Shien Yang
天气是影响配电系统可靠性的主要因素之一。一种模拟天气对架空配电线路故障率影响的有效方法，将使公用事业公司能够比较其系统在不同天气条件下的可靠性。这将使他们能够做出正确的决定，以获得最佳的运营和维护计划，以减少天气对可靠性的影响。本文提出了架空配电线路故障率的两种建模方法。第一个是基于泊松回归模型，它捕获了架空配电线路故障事件的计数性质。第二种是贝叶斯网络模型，它使用给定不同天气状态的故障条件概率。这两种方法都用于预测每年与天气有关的架空线故障事件。接下来是蒙特卡罗分析，以确定预测界限。比较了这些模型得到的结果，评价了它们的显著特征
Weather is one of the major factors affecting the reliability of power distribution systems. An effective method to model weather's impact on overhead distribution lines' failure rates will enable utilities to compare their systems' reliabilities under different weather conditions. This will allow them to make the right decisions to obtain the best operation and maintenance plan to reduce impacts of weather on reliabilities. Two methods to model overhead distribution lines' failure rates are presented in this paper. The first is based on a Poisson regression model, and it captures the counting nature of failure events on overhead distribution lines. The second is a Bayesian network model, which uses conditional probabilities of failures given different weather states. Both methods are used to predict the yearly weather-related failure events on overhead lines. This is followed by a Monte Carlo analysis to determine prediction bounds. The results obtained by these models are compared to evaluate their salient features