Decision-making under climate shocks and economic insecurity: Ranching in rural Baja California Sur, Mexico
Decision-making under climate shocks and economic insecurity: Ranching in rural Baja California Sur, Mexico
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DOI：
10.1016/j.evolhumbehav.2023.07.001
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发表时间：
2023-09-25
影响因子：
5.1
通讯作者：
Amador，Maximo Amador
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Macfarlan，Shane J.;Schacht，Ryan;Amador，Maximo Amador
气候冲击和经济不安全挑战着全球畜牧业管理者的福祉。学者们认为，牧场主追求不同的经济战略（畜群组成和用途），因为财富的变化对风险偏好的影响。然而，代际财富转移和损失经历也可以解释这些结果。没有测试比较这些解释中的哪一个更接近牧场主所采用的决定。因此，我们研究如何从农村南下加利福尼亚，墨西哥的牧场主调整畜群的组成和使用在不同的经济（即土地安全）和环境条件（即干旱与非干旱年）。我们的研究结果表明：1）社会经济条件和代际转移都与畜群组成有关-安全土地上的人和父母放牧的牛有更多的牛，2）畜群组成影响消费模式-无论生态条件如何，专注于山羊生产的人相对于那些养牛的人来说，3）社会经济变化影响正常生态条件下的销售和维护-生活在安全土地上的人按比例将更多的牲畜用于销售，而土地不安全的人则侧重于维护，以及4）经历了干旱引起的牲畜损失，但没有土地安全，解释了人们如何应对生态冲击的差异-那些经历较大损失的人更努力地保持牛群的生存，而不是销售，这表明他们变得厌恶风险。我们的研究结果表明，社会经济的可变性影响风险偏好的良性生态条件下，然而，这些偏好是灵活的，面对经济损失。
Climatic shocks and economic insecurity challenge the wellbeing of livestock managers, globally. Scholars argue that ranchers pursue different economic strategies (herd composition and uses) because of the effects of variation in wealth on risk preferences. However, intergenerational wealth transfers and experiences of loss could also explain these outcomes. There are no tests comparing which of these interpretations more closely align with decisions ranchers employ. Accordingly, we examine how ranchers from rural Baja California Sur, Mexico adjust herd compositions and uses across varying economic (i.e. land security) and environmental conditions (i.e. drought vs non-drought years). Our results indicate 1) both socio-economic condition and intergenerational transfers are associated with herd composition – people on secure land and whose parents ranched cattle have more cattle, 2) herd composition influences consumption patterns – people focusing on goat production eat a greater percentage of their livestock relative to those with cattle regardless of ecological condition, 3) socio-economic variation influences sales and maintenance under normal ecological conditions – people living on secure land place proportionally more livestock into sales, while the land insecure focus on maintenance, and 4) experience with drought-induced livestock losses, but not land security, explains variation in how people respond to an ecological shock – those experiencing larger losses place greater effort in keeping herds alive rather than sales, suggesting they become risk averse. Our results indicate that socio-economic variability influences risk preferences under benign ecological conditions; however, these preferences are flexible in the face of economic losses.