Modeling the Response of Glacier System to Climate Warming——Taking Glaciers in China as an Example
Modeling the Response of Glacier System to Climate Warming——Taking Glaciers in China as an Example
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发表时间：
2005
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通讯作者：
Xie Zi-chu;Feng Qing-hua
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作者：
Xie Zi-chu;Feng Qing-hua
根据中国的冰川名录，将中国冰川按分水岭划分为16个大冰川系统，44个小冰川系统。根据冰川系统的结构和稳态平衡线高度的性质，建立了冰川系统对气候变暖的响应函数模型。利用冰川年消融与夏季平均温度的Kotlyakov-Krenke方程和冰川系统中值大小的代表性，研究了冰川径流对气候变化的响应。这些模型同时考虑了冰川隆起引起的气温下降和冰川面积减少的影响。在升温速率为0.02K/a和0.03K/a的气候情景下的模拟结果表明，到2030年，中国的冰川径流将达到顶峰，然后下降。如果气候持续变暖，冰川面积将继续减少，到2030年、2050年、2100年，中国冰川面积将分别平均减少6%~9%、10%~15%、23.2%~34%左右。
According to the Glacier Inventories of China,glaciers in China can be divided and sub-divided as 16 large,44 less large glacier systems based on the watershed.On the basis of the structure of the glacier system and the nature of the equilibrium line altitudes at the steady state,functional models of glacier system responding to climate warming were established,using Kotlyakov-Krenke's equation relating annual ablation of glacier and mean summer temperature and the representativity of glacier system's median size.The models are applied to the study of theresponse of glacier runoff to climatic change.The effect of decreasing air temperature due to rising of glaciers' ELA and reduction of glaciers area were considered in these models simultaneously.The modeling results under the climatic scenarios with temperature increasing rate of 0.02 K/a and 0.03 K/a indicate that,by the year of 2030,glacier runoff of China will reach climax level,then it will fall down,and get to the level of 20th's after the year of 2050.If climate continuously warming,the glacier area will continuously reduce,and by the year of 2030,2050,2100,the glacier area in China will averagely reduce for about 6%~9%,10%~15%,23.2%～34% respectively.