Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Incidence: Are We Reaching the Peak?
Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Incidence: Are We Reaching the Peak?
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DOI：
10.1158/1055-9965.epi-10-0012
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发表时间：
2010-06-01
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Welch, H. Gilbert
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Pohl, Heiko;Sirovich, Brenda;Welch, H. Gilbert
背景：1973年至2001年间，食管腺癌的发病率急剧上升，但最近的趋势尚未见报道。我们的目的是调查食管腺癌发病率的最新趋势。方法：我们使用国家癌症研究所的监测流行病学和最终结果数据库来确定1973-2006年间所有被诊断为食管腺癌的患者。结果：食管腺癌总发病率从1973年的3.6/百万上升到2006年的25.6/百万。然而，发病率趋势分析表明，这一增长已经放缓，从1996年之前的8.2%的年增长率降至随后几年的1.3%(P=0.03)。特定阶段的趋势分析表明，总体食管腺癌发病率的变化在很大程度上反映了早期疾病发病率的平台期。其斜率已发生变化，从1999年前的每年10%上升到随后几年的1.6%(P=0.01)。结论：早期食管腺癌的发病率似乎已经停滞不前。影响：虽然确切的结论需要更多的年数据，但早期疾病的平台期可能预示着食管腺癌总体发病率的稳定。癌症流行病学生物标记物；19(6)；1468-70。(C)2010年AACR。
Background: A steep increase in the incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma has been observed between 1973 and 2001, but recent trends have not been reported. Our aim was to examine recent trends in esophageal adenocarcinoma incidence.Methods: We used the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results database of the National Cancer Institute to identify all patients who were diagnosed with esophageal adenocarcinoma between 1973 and 2006. Incidence trends were analyzed for esophageal adenocarcinoma overall and by stage using joinpoint regression.Results: Overall esophageal adenocarcinoma incidence increased from 3.6 per million in 1973 to 25.6 per million in 2006. Incidence trend analysis, however, suggests that the increase has slowed, from an 8.2% annual increase prior to 1996 to 1.3% increase in subsequent years (P = 0.03). Stage-specific trend analyses suggest that the change in overall esophageal adenocarcinoma incidence largely reflects a plateau in the incidence of early stage disease. Its slope has changed direction, from a 10% annual increase prior to 1999 to a 1.6% decline in subsequent years (P = 0.01).Conclusions: The incidence of early stage esophageal adenocarcinoma seems to have plateaued.Impact: Although definitive conclusions will require additional years of data, the plateau in early stage disease might portend stabilization in the overall incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 19(6); 1468- 70. (C) 2010 AACR.