Highly Variable El Nino-Southern Oscillation Throughout the Holocene
Highly Variable El Nino-Southern Oscillation Throughout the Holocene
复制标题
整个全新世高度变化的厄尔尼诺-南方涛动
DOI：
10.1126/science.1228246
复制
发表时间：
2013-01-04
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Charles, Christopher D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Cobb, Kim M.;Westphal, Niko;Charles, Christopher D.
厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）每年都在推动全球气候模式的巨大变化，但其对持续人为温室效应的敏感性尚不确定。我们分析了位于ENSO作用中心的北方线群岛过去7000年ENSO的化石珊瑚重建。珊瑚记录了高度可变的ENSO活动，没有证据表明ENSO方差存在系统性趋势，这与某些模型相反，这些模型显示出对同一时期日照强迫的反应。20世纪的ENSO方差明显高于化石珊瑚的平均ENSO方差，但并非史无前例。我们的研究结果表明，ENSO的强迫变化，无论是自然的还是人为的，可能很难检测到大的内部变率的背景下。
The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives large changes in global climate patterns from year to year, yet its sensitivity to continued anthropogenic greenhouse forcing is uncertain. We analyzed fossil coral reconstructions of ENSO spanning the past 7000 years from the Northern Line Islands, located in the center of action for ENSO. The corals document highly variable ENSO activity, with no evidence for a systematic trend in ENSO variance, which is contrary to some models that exhibit a response to insolation forcing over this same period. Twentieth-century ENSO variance is significantly higher than average fossil coral ENSO variance but is not unprecedented. Our results suggest that forced changes in ENSO, whether natural or anthropogenic, may be difficult to detect against a background of large internal variability.