Towards risk-based water resources planning in England and Wales under a changing climate
Towards risk-based water resources planning in England and Wales under a changing climate
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1747-6593.2011.00271.x
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发表时间：
2012-03-01
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Kilsby, C. G.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hall, J. W.;Watts, G.;Kilsby, C. G.
英国气候变化预测UKCP09的发布为更严格地将气候变化不确定性纳入水资源规划提供了机会。我们阐述了如何更新目前将气候变化和其他不确定性纳入水资源规划的方法，以纳入UKCP09的预测。在一个不确定的未来，客户遇到缺水的频率是无法预测的，所以水务公司无法肯定地预测它是否会履行其服务水平的承诺。因此，我们继续提出，未能达到服务水平的概率（对于给定的客户群体）提供了一个适当的风险度量，它方便地总结了与供需相关的不确定性，包括气候变化的不确定性。我们概述了如何基于水资源系统的模拟建模来计算这种风险度量。
The publication of the UKCP09 climate change projections for the United Kingdom provides the opportunity for more rigorous inclusion of climate change uncertainty in water resources planning. We set out how the current approach to incorporating climate change and other uncertainties in water resources planning may be updated to incorporate the UKCP09 projections. In an uncertain future, the frequency with which customers will experience water shortages cannot be predicted for sure, so a water company cannot predict definitely whether it will or will not fulfil its Level of Service commitments. We therefore go on to propose that the probability of failing to meet Level of Service (for given populations of customers) provides an appropriate metric of risk, which conveniently summarises the uncertainties associated with supply and demand, including climate change uncertainties. We sketch out how this risk metric can be calculated based upon simulation modelling of the water resource system.