Protected areas may not effectively support conservation of endangered forest plants under climate change
Protected areas may not effectively support conservation of endangered forest plants under climate change
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DOI：
10.1007/s12665-016-5364-4
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发表时间：
2016-03
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
Chunjing Wang;J. Wan;Gang-Min Zhang;Zhi-xiang Zhang;Jing Zhang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Chunjing Wang;J. Wan;Gang-Min Zhang;Zhi-xiang Zhang;Jing Zhang
保护区在保护宝贵的森林资源方面发挥着重要作用，全世界越来越多的地区被指定为保护区。然而，气候变化可能会将濒危森林植物赶出保护区，影响保护区保护濒危森林植物的功能。因此，保护生物学家有必要提出一种简单的方法来评估保护区保护濒危森林植物的能力。本文对中国三个生态区的61种濒危森林植物进行了研究。应用物种分布模型预测濒危森林植物的适宜生境，并利用地理信息系统计算保护区是否支持濒危森林植物的保护。随着气体浓度增加引起的气候变化，保护区支持濒危森林植物保护的总体能力可能会降低，而生态区的保护需求则会降低。我们发现，保护区有不同的能力，以保护濒危森林植物在不同的生态区。对于温带阔叶混交林和热带、亚热带湿润阔叶林，气候变化将降低保护区在现有森林景观中有效支持濒危森林植物保护的能力。相比之下，我们发现温带针叶林可能仍然有效。利用这些信息，我们提出了不同生态区在气候变化下的保护计划。对于生态区内支持濒危森林植物保护的能力有限的保护区，我们建议根据濒危森林植物的适宜生境扩大森林和保护区的面积。对于生态区中具有稳定的濒危森林植物保护能力的保护区，我们建议扩大保护区的保护面积。
Protected areas (PAs) play an important role in the conservation of valuable forest resources, and an increasing number of areas are being designated as PAs worldwide. However, climate change could drive endangered forest plants out of PAs, and impact the function of PAs to conserve endangered forest plants. Hence, it is necessary for conservation biologists to put forward a simple method to evaluate the ability of PAs to conserve endangered forest plants. Here, we studied 61 endangered forest plants from three ecoregions in China. We applied species distribution modeling to project suitable habitats of endangered forest plants, and used geographical information system to compute whether PAs could support the conservation of endangered forest plants. With climate change caused by increasing gas concentration, the overall ability of PAs to support the conservation of endangered forest plants will likely decrease compared to the conservation needs of ecoregions. We found that PAs have varying abilities to conserve endangered forest plants in different ecoregions. For temperate broadleaf mixed forests and tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forests, we found that climate change will decrease the PAs’ ability to support the conservation of endangered forest plants effectively in the existing forest landscape. In contrast, we found that temperate conifer forests will likely remain effective. Using this information, we proposed the conservation plans for different ecoregions under climate change. For PAs with limited ability to support the conservation of endangered forest plants in an ecoregion, we recommend expanding the areas of forests and PAs based on the suitable habitats of the endangered forest plants. For PAs with stable ability to support the conservation of endangered forest plants in an ecoregion, we recommend expanding the conservation areas in PAs.