Revisiting the Origins of Business Cycles with the Size-Variance Relationship
Revisiting the Origins of Business Cycles with the Size-Variance Relationship
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用规模-方差关系重新审视经济周期的起源
DOI：
10.1162/rest_a_01374
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发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
Chen Yeh
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chen Yeh
这篇论文量化了颗粒状渠道对美国经济的重要性，因为考虑到大公司比小公司更不稳定；这一特征也被称为规模-方差关系。直观地说，最大的公司，其冲击驱动粒度，是最不容易波动的，因此它们对总量的影响被减轻。通过在一个简单的量化框架中对雇主群体中的大小-方差关系进行估计，我发现细粒度假设可以使美国总体波动的15%合理化；为粒度在美国经济中的作用设定了一个下限。
This paper quantifies the importance of the granular channel for the U.S. economy by taking into account that large firms are less volatile than small firms; a feature also known as the size-variance relationship. Intuitively, the largest firms, whose shocks drive granularity, are the least volatile, thus their influence on aggregates is mitigated. By imposing estimates from the universe of employers for the size-variance relationship in a simple, quantitative framework, I find that the granular hypothesis can rationalize 15 percent of U.S. aggregate fluctuations; establishing a lower bound for the role of granularity in the U.S. economy.