Global disease spread:: Statistics and estimation of arrival times
Global disease spread:: Statistics and estimation of arrival times
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jtbi.2007.12.001
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发表时间：
2008-04-07
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Barthelemy, Marc
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gautreau, Aurelien;Barrat, Alain;Barthelemy, Marc
我们研究了流行病传播的集合种群模型，其中不同的子种群（城市）由个人（旅行者）的流量连接。这个框架允许一个大规模的疾病的传播，我们在这里集中在计算的疾病的到达时间作为一个功能的属性的种子的流行病和网络的特性连接的各个亚群。使用分析和数值参数，我们引入了一个容易计算的量，近似这个平均到达时间。我们展示了一个疾病在全球机场网络上传播的例子，这个数量以很好的精度预测了疾病在每个流行病场景实现的各个亚群中的到达顺序，而不仅仅是平均的实现。最后，这个数量可能有助于确定疾病传播的主要途径。(C)2007爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
We study metapopulation models for the spread of epidemics in which different subpopulations (cities) are connected by fluxes of individuals (travelers). This framework allows one to describe the spread of a disease on a large scale and we focus here on the computation of the arrival time of a disease as a function of the properties of the seed of the epidemics and of the characteristics of the network connecting the various subpopulations. Using analytical and numerical arguments, we introduce an easily computable quantity which approximates this average arrival time. We show on the example of a disease spread on the world-wide airport network that this quantity predicts with a good accuracy the order of arrival of the disease in the various subpopulations in each realization of epidemic scenario, and not only for an average over realizations. Finally, this quantity might be useful in the identification of the dominant paths of the disease spread. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.