Stagnation Traps
Stagnation Traps
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DOI：
10.1093/restud/rdx063
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发表时间：
2018-07-01
影响因子：
5.8
通讯作者：
Fornaro, Luca
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Benigno, Gianluca;Fornaro, Luca
我们提出了凯恩斯主义的增长理论，在该理论中，悲观的预期可能会导致以高失业率和增长疲软为特征的非常持久的、甚至是永久性的衰退。我们将这些事件称为停滞陷阱，因为它们同时存在流动性陷阱和增长陷阱。在停滞陷阱中，央行无法恢复充分就业，因为疲软的增长抑制了总需求，并推动政策利率偏离零的下限，而增长疲软是因为低总需求导致低利润，限制了企业对创新的投资。旨在恢复增长的激进政策，如对投资的补贴，可以通过促使经济主体的增长预期发生制度转变，成功地带领经济走出停滞陷阱。
We provide a Keynesian growth theory in which pessimistic expectations can lead to very persistent, or even permanent, slumps characterized by high unemployment and weak growth. We refer to these episodes as stagnation traps, because they consist in the joint occurrence of a liquidity and a growth trap. In a stagnation trap, the central bank is unable to restore full employment because weak growth depresses aggregate demand and pushes the policy rate against the zero lower bound, while growth is weak because low aggregate demand results in low profits, limiting firms' investment in innovation. Aggressive policies aiming at restoring growth, such as subsidies to investment, can successfully lead the economy out of a stagnation trap by generating a regime shift in agents' growth expectations.