Political Leadership Changes and the Withdrawal from Military Coalition Operations, 1946-2001
Political Leadership Changes and the Withdrawal from Military Coalition Operations, 1946-2001
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1946 年至 2001 年政治领导层更迭和军事联盟行动的撤军
DOI：
10.1111/insp.12058
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发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
Pilster U
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Pilster U
一些研究声称，一个国家的政治领导层的变化会影响外交政策的制定。下面的文章在国家参与军事联合行动的背景下系统地验证了这一点。通过建立先前的理论模型，作者认为新领导人可能与他们的前任不同，因为前者(i)在参与军事干预方面有不同的偏好，（ii）以不同的方式评估相关信息，以及（iii）不太可能陷入干预政策。最终，这些因素的净效应应该使政治领导层更替更有可能与过早退出正在进行的军事联盟有关。该理论通过对1946-2001年新收集的军事联合行动数据的定量分析和定性案例研究进行了检验。作者为他们的论点找到了强有力的支持。
Several studies have claimed that changes in the political leadership of a country affect foreign policy decision making. The following paper systematically tests this in the context of states’ participation in military coalition operations. By building on previous theoretical models, the authors argue that new leaders may differ from their predecessors in that the former (i) have dissimilar preferences with regard to the involvement in military interventions, (ii) evaluate relevant information differently, and (iii) are less likely to be entrapped in intervention policies. Ultimately, the net effect of these factors should make it more likely that political leadership turnovers are associated with premature withdrawals from ongoing military coalitions. The theory is tested by quantitative analyses of newly collected data on military coalition operations in 1946–2001 and a qualitative case study. The authors find strong and robust support for their argument.