A Treatise on Probability
A Treatise on Probability
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DOI：
10.2307/2223083
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发表时间：
1921-12
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
J. Keynes
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Keynes
第一部分基本思想：概率的含义-概率与知识论的关系-概率的测量-无差异原理-确定概率的其他方法-论据的权重-历史回顾-概率的频率理论-第1部分的建构理论总结。第二部分基本定理：介绍-理论的群体，特别是参考逻辑一致性，推理，和逻辑优先级-的定义和公理的推理和概率-基本定理的概率推理-数值测量和近似的概率-意见的定理第14章和他们的发展，包括证词-一些问题的逆概率，包括平均数。第三部分归纳和类比：引言-类比论证的性质-实例倍增或纯粹归纳的价值-归纳论证的性质继续-这些方法的证明-关于归纳的一些历史注释-关于第三部分的注释。第四部分概率的一些哲学应用：客观机会和随机性的含义--讨论变化时出现的一些问题--概率在行为中的应用。第五部分统计推断的基础：统计推断的本质-大数定律-使用先验概率预测统计频率-数学上使用统计频率确定后验概率-伯努利定理的反演-归纳使用统计频率确定后验概率-一个建设性的理论。
Part 1 Fundamental ideas: the meaning of probability - probability in relation to the theory of knowledge - the measurement of probabilities - the principle of indifference - other methods of determining probabilities - the weight of arguments - historical retrospect - the frequency theory of probability - the constructive theory of part 1 summarized. Part 2 Fundamental theorems: introductory - the theory of groups, with special reference to logical consistence, inference, and logical priority - the definitions and axioms of inference and probability - the fundamental theorems of probable inference - numerical measurement and approximation of probabilities - observations on the theorems of chapter 14 and their developments, including testimony - some problems in inverse probability, including averages. Part 3 Induction and analogy: introduction - the nature of argument by analogy - the value of multiplication of instances, or pure induction - the nature of inductive argument continued - the justification of these methods - some historical notes on induction - notes on part 3. Part 4 Some philosophical applications of probability: the meanings of objective chance, and of randomness - some problems arising out of the discussion of change - the application of probability to conduct. Part 5 The foundations of statistical inference: the nature of statistical inference - the law of great numbers - the use of a priori probabilities for the prediction of statistical frequency - the mathematical use of statistical frequencies for the determination of probability a posteriori - the inversion of Bernoulli's theorem - the inductive use of statistical frequencies for the determination of probability a posteriori - outline of a constructive theory.