Twin Deficits: Squaring Theory, Evidence and Common Sense
Twin Deficits: Squaring Theory, Evidence and Common Sense
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双赤字：平方理论、证据和常识
DOI：
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发表时间：
2006
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Gernot Müller
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
G. Corsetti;Gernot Müller
type="main" xml:lang="en"> 简单的核算表明，政府预算的冲击会使经常账户向同一个方向移动，这种“双赤字”直觉导致许多观察家呼吁美国实施财政整顿，作为减少该国严重外部失衡的必要措施。然而，其他宏观经济变量对预算发展的反应对“双赤字”和这一政策处方具有重要影响。通过关注财政政策冲击通过贸易条件变化的国际传导，我们发现双赤字的可能性和规模随着经济开放程度的增加而增加，并随着财政冲击的持续而减少。我们对数据进行了深入分析，并通过矢量自回归 (VAR) 模型研究了澳大利亚、加拿大、英国和美国财政冲击的传导情况。我们发现，在不太开放的国家，冲击对政府支出或预算赤字的外部影响是有限的，而私人投资的反应符合我们的理论预测。这些结果表明，美国的财政紧缩对其当前外部赤字的影响可能有限。 — Giancarlo Corsetti 和 Gernot J. Muller
type="main" xml:lang="en"> Simple accounting suggests that shocks to the government budget move the current account in the same direction, and this ‘twin deficits’ intuition leads many observers to call for fiscal consolidation in the US as a necessary measure to reduce the large external imbalance of this country. The response of other macroeconomic variables to budget developments, however, has important implications for ‘twin deficits’ and for this policy prescription. Focusing on the international transmission of fiscal policy shocks via terms of trade changes, we show that the likelihood and magnitude of twin deficits increases with the degree of openness of an economy, and decreases with the persistence of fiscal shocks. We take this insight to the data and investigate the transmission of fiscal shocks in a vector autoregression (VAR) model estimated for Australia, Canada, the UK and the US. We find that in less open countries the external impact of shocks to either government spending or budget deficits is limited, while private investment responds in line with our theoretical prediction. These results suggest that a fiscal retrenchment in the US may have a limited impact on its current external deficit. — Giancarlo Corsetti and Gernot J. Muller