Alternative Measures of Self-Rated Health for Predicting Mortality Among Older People: Is Past or Future Orientation More Important?
Alternative Measures of Self-Rated Health for Predicting Mortality Among Older People: Is Past or Future Orientation More Important?
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DOI：
10.1093/geront/gnt098
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发表时间：
2015-10-01
期刊：
影响因子：
5.7
通讯作者：
Wilkinson, Lindsay R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ferraro, Kenneth F.;Wilkinson, Lindsay R.
目的：本研究的目的是比较健康评分的替代措施的预后有效性，包括那些利用时间反射的措施，对成人死亡率。设计与方法：本研究在1995年选取了1,266名年龄在50-74岁之间的美国人作为样本，并对其生命状态进行了跟踪，直至2005年。研究比较了三种类型的健康评级对死亡率的影响：传统的自评健康指标（SRH）、SRH年龄比较表和包含时间维度的健康评级。在调整健康状况、生活方式因素、状态特征和资源的同时，使用逻辑回归来估计与其他健康评分相关的死亡率。结果：自我评估的健康状况是死亡率的一致预测因素，但被调查者的预期健康状况-未来10年-是一个独立的预测因素。在预测死亡风险方面，对未来健康状况的预期比过去（回忆起的变化）更重要：对未来健康状况抱有更消极预期的人存活的可能性更小。启示：研究结果揭示了未来时间观对老年人的重要性，并表明询问老年人对未来健康的预期比询问他们的健康状况如何变化更有用。
Purpose: The purpose of this study was to compare the prognostic validity of alternative measures of health ratings, including those that tap temporal reflections, on adult mortality.Design and Methods: The study uses a national sample of 1,266 Americans 50-74 years old in 1995, with vital status tracked through 2005, to compare the effect of 3 types of health ratings on mortality: conventional indicator of self-rated health (SRH), age comparison form of SRH, and health ratings that incorporate temporal dimensions. Logistic regression was used to estimate the odds of mortality associated with alternative health ratings while adjusting for health conditions, lifestyle factors, and status characteristics and resources.Results: Self-rated health was a consistent predictor of mortality, but the respondent's expected health rating-10 years in the future-was an independent predictor. Future health expectations were more important than past (recalled change) in predicting mortality risk: People with more negative expectations of future health were less likely to survive.Implications: The findings reveal the importance of future time perspective for older people and suggest that it is more useful to query older people about their future health expectations than about how their health has changed.