Price Flexibility, Credit Availability, and Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from the United States, 1894–1909
Price Flexibility, Credit Availability, and Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from the United States, 1894–1909
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价格灵活性、信贷可用性和经济波动：来自美国的证据，1894 年至 1909 年
DOI：
10.2307/2937804
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发表时间：
1989
影响因子：
13.7
通讯作者：
R. Hubbard
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Charles W. Calomiris;R. Hubbard
金融市场扰动对实体经济活动的重要性，以及价格水平和产出变动之间的积极联系，通常可以通过名义总需求冲击（特别是货币供应冲击）和刚性价格的组合来解释。我们认为，这种观点与第一次世界大战前金本位时代价格和黄金流动对名义扰动的短期反应性的证据不一致。我们提供了另一种解释，将金融市场和实际活动通过干扰与信贷的可用性联系起来。这种方法通过与价格水平冲击相关的信贷市场的实际影响，将价格和产出的变动联系起来。使用第一次世界大战前的月度数据进行的实证分析支持价格快速调整的假设，以及信贷供应对金融冲击传导的解释。对信贷供应的干扰，包括价格冲击，在很大程度上有助于我们对这一时期产出波动的实证解释。
The importance of disturbances in financial markets for real economic activity and the positive association between price level and output movements typically are explained by appeal to a combination of nominal aggregate demand shocks (particularly money-supply shocks) and rigid prices. We argue that this view is inconsistent with evidence for short-run responsiveness of prices and gold flows to nominal disturbances during the pre-World War I gold-standard era. We offer an alternative explanation that connects financial markets and real activity through disturbances to the availability of credit. This approach links comovements in prices and output through real effects in credit markets associated with price-level shocks. Empirical analysis, using monthly data for the pre-World War I period, supports the assumption of rapid price adjustment, and the credit-supply interpretation of the transmission of financial shocks. Disturbances to credit availability, including price shocks, contribute substantially to our empirical explanation of output fluctuations during this period.