The benefits from complying with the framework convention on tobacco control: a SimSmoke analysis of 15 European nations
The benefits from complying with the framework convention on tobacco control: a SimSmoke analysis of 15 European nations
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DOI：
10.1093/heapol/czt085
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发表时间：
2014-12-01
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Clancy, Luke
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Levy, David T.;Huang, An-Tsun;Clancy, Luke
方法将特定国家的人口，吸烟率和政策数据与修改后的参数值应用于先前验证的SimSmoke模型，用于10个高收入和5个中等收入的欧洲国家。过去和潜在的未来政策的影响modeled.Results模型普遍验证以及在15个国家，并显示了过去的政策的影响。如果没有更强有力的未来政策，4400万人将失去生命，由于吸烟在15个研究国家之间的2011年和2040年，但有效的政策可以避免770万这些过早deaths.Conclusions结果表明，过去的政策已经有效地降低吸烟率，但也有一个强大的潜力，未来的政策符合《烟草控制框架公约》。当特定税收增加到零售价格的70%，实施强有力的无烟空气法，青年准入法和营销限制，实施更强有力的健康警告，并支持戒烟治疗和媒体宣传活动时，欧洲国家的吸烟率和SAD将大幅下降。
Methods Country-specific population, smoking prevalence and policy data with modified parameter values have been applied to the previously validated SimSmoke model for 10 high-income and 5 middle-income European nations. The impact of past and potential future policies is modelled.Results Models generally validated well across the 15 countries, and showed the impact of past policies. Without stronger future policies, 44 million lives would be lost due to smoking across the 15 study countries between 2011 and 2040, but effective policies could avert 7.7 million of those premature deaths.Conclusions Results suggest that past policies have been effective in reducing smoking rates, but there is also a strong potential for future policies consistent with the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. When specific taxes are increased to 70% of retail price, strong smoke-free air laws, youth access laws and marketing restrictions are enforced, stronger health warnings are implemented, and cessation treatment and media campaigns are supported, smoking prevalence and SADs will fall substantially in European countries.