Modeling a syphilis outbreak through space and time using the Bayesian maximum entropy approach
Modeling a syphilis outbreak through space and time using the Bayesian maximum entropy approach
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DOI：
10.1016/j.annepidem.2006.05.003
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发表时间：
2006-11-01
影响因子：
5.6
通讯作者：
Rompalo, Anne M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Law, Dionne C. Gesink;Bernstein, Kyle T.;Rompalo, Anne M.
目得：本研究的目的是通过使用贝叶斯最大熵（BME）（一种用于时空分析和制图的现代地质统计学技术）来描述马里兰州巴尔的摩梅毒爆发之前、期间和之后的空间分布变化。采用BME对梅毒感染密度进行了简单和复合时空分析，方法：收集1994年1月1日至2002年12月31日巴尔的摩市卫生局报告的二期和早期潜伏梅毒病例。结果：梅毒病例密度的时空分布具有空间和时间依赖性。时间依赖性疾病地图表明，梅毒在两个地理核心感染区域内增加并向外传播。一个新的感染核心区在西北部建立。随着疫情的减弱，所有核心地区的人口密度都在减少和消退。发病率仍然升高，在两个原来的中央和新的西北部核心areas后outbreak.CONCLUSIONS：梅毒感染的密度是一个简单的信息量很容易跨年比较。BME方法可用于定量和定性描述梅毒的空间发展和传播。我们的研究结果是特定的巴尔的摩，然而，BME的方法是推广到其他设置和疾病。
PURPOSE: The aim of the study is to describe changes in the spatial distribution of syphilis before, during, and after an outbreak in Baltimore, MD, by using Bayesian maximum entropy (BME), a modern geostatistical technique for space-time analysis and mapping.METHODS: BME was used to conduct simple and composite space-time analyses of the density of syphilis infection based on primary, secondary and early latent syphilis cases reported to the Baltimore City Health Department between January 1, 1994, and December 31, 2002.RESULTS: Spatiotemporal covariance plots indicated that the distribution of the density of syphilis cases showed both spatial and temporal dependence. Temporally dependent disease maps suggested that syphilis increased within two geographic core areas of infection and spread outward. A new core area of infection was established to the northwest. As the outbreak waned, density diminished and receded in all core areas. Morbidity remained elevated in the two original central and new northwestern core areas after the outbreak.CONCLUSIONS: Density of syphilis infection was a simple informative measure easily compared across years. The BME approach was useful for quantitatively and qualitatively describing the spatial development and spread of syphilis. Our results are specific to Baltimore; however, the BME approach is generalizable to other settings and diseases.