Advanced long-term bird banding and climate data mining in spring confirm passerine population declines for the Northeast Chinese-Russian flyway
Advanced long-term bird banding and climate data mining in spring confirm passerine population declines for the Northeast Chinese-Russian flyway
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DOI：
10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.06.015
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发表时间：
2016-09-01
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Ouyang, Yanlan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jiao, Shengwu;Huettmann, Falk;Ouyang, Yanlan
鸟类的迁徙对人类来说是令人着迷的，但它也是全球层面上一个严重的环境监测和管理问题。几十年来，使用迷网进行鸟类捆绑一直是全球范围内的首选方法；将这些数据与气候数据联系起来，可以推断全球变暖和离群值事件。然而，对于许多物种来说，在时间和空间上有效实现这一目标的好方法仍然缺乏；亚洲的数据特别稀少，而且往往是“凌乱的”。本文对辽阔的中俄东北航线沿线的两个鸟类环志站点(高峰和秦峰)的数据进行了数据挖掘总结。鸟类数据是在2002-2011年春季用标准化技术收集的，然后与环带和越冬点的相关气候数据联系起来。这创建了一个基于十年的复杂数据集，其中包括许多预测值。这是首次使用数据克隆和机器学习方法(增强回归树)进行的数据挖掘分析，展示了如何从高度相关和相互作用的预测值中提取这一独特数据集中的主要信号。我们的结果表明，从2003年开始，该航线出现了大范围变暖的趋势，2008年发生了一次冻雨异常事件；过去几年一直保持在相当温暖的水平。沿着这条巨大的飞行路线的所有证据都支持重大的变化、变暖的趋势、栖息地的丧失，从而导致雀形目鸟类的大幅下降。据推测，人类的压力是其中一个主要因素，我们建议立即解决这些问题，以便更好地实现有意义的保护目标。(C)2016爱思唯尔B.V.保留所有权利。
The migration of birds is fascinating for humans but it's also a serious environmental monitoring and management issue on a global level. Bird banding using mistnets has been the method of choice for decades worldwide; linking these data with climate data allows to infer on global warming and outlier events. However, good methods to achieve this effectively in time and space for many species are still missing; data for Asia are specifically sparse and often 'messy'. Here we present a data mining summary information for data from two bird banding stations (Gaofeng and Qjngfeng) along the vast Northeast Chinese-Russian flyway. Bird data were collected during spring 2002-2011 with standardized techniques and then linked with related climate data in the banding as well as the wintering sites. This creates a complex data set which is based on a decade and which includes many predictors. This first-time data mining analysis with 'data cloning' and machine learning methods (boosted regression trees) shows how to extract the major signals in this unique dataset from highly correlated and interacting predictors. Our results indicate a large-scale warming trend for the flyway, with a start in 2003, and a freezing rain outlier event in 2008; the last years remained on a rather warm level. All evidence along this vast flyway supports major changes, warming trends, habitat losses and consequently strong passerine declines. Presumably human pressures are a major factor either way and we propose to address these problems immediately for betterment if meaningful conservation targets are to be met. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.