Thermal Tolerance of the Coffee Berry Borer Hypothenemus hampei: Predictions of Climate Change Impact on a Tropical Insect Pest
Thermal Tolerance of the Coffee Berry Borer Hypothenemus hampei: Predictions of Climate Change Impact on a Tropical Insect Pest
复制标题
DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0006487
复制
发表时间：
2009-08-03
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Borgemeister, Christian
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jaramillo, Juliana;Chabi-Olaye, Adenirin;Borgemeister, Christian
据预测，咖啡会受到气候变化的严重影响。我们确定了咖啡浆果蛀虫（世界上最具破坏性的咖啡害虫）的耐热性，并利用哥伦比亚、肯尼亚、坦桑尼亚和埃塞俄比亚的气候数据推断气候变化可能产生的影响。为此，研究了8种温度（15、20、23、25、27、30、33和35℃）对hampei的生物学影响。卵到成虫的成功发育发生在20-30摄氏度之间。利用线性回归和改进的Logan模型，估计发育的下限和上限分别为14.9摄氏度和32摄氏度。在肯尼亚和哥伦比亚，每年害虫世代数与耐温性显著正相关。对埃塞俄比亚Jimma 32年的气候数据进行分析后发现，1984年以前，由于气候太冷，hampei每年甚至不能繁殖一代，但此后，由于该地区气温上升，每年/咖啡季节可以繁殖1-2代。与哥伦比亚站点相比，三个东非站点的hampei升温耐受性和热安全边际计算数据显示出相当高的变异性。该模型表明，热最优温度（T-opt）每升高1℃，最大内在增长率（r(max)）将平均增加8.5%。讨论了气候变化对汉贝分布范围的影响及可能的适应策略。摘要S1和S2是西班牙文和法文的补充材料。
Coffee is predicted to be severely affected by climate change. We determined the thermal tolerance of the coffee berry borer, Hypothenemus hampei, the most devastating pest of coffee worldwide, and make inferences on the possible effects of climate change using climatic data from Colombia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Ethiopia. For this, the effect of eight temperature regimes (15, 20, 23, 25, 27, 30, 33 and 35 degrees C) on the bionomics of H. hampei was studied. Successful egg to adult development occurred between 20-30 degrees C. Using linear regression and a modified Logan model, the lower and upper thresholds for development were estimated at 14.9 and 32 degrees C, respectively. In Kenya and Colombia, the number of pest generations per year was considerably and positively correlated with the warming tolerance. Analysing 32 years of climatic data from Jimma (Ethiopia) revealed that before 1984 it was too cold for H. hampei to complete even one generation per year, but thereafter, because of rising temperatures in the area, 1-2 generations per year/coffee season could be completed. Calculated data on warming tolerance and thermal safety margins of H. hampei for the three East African locations showed considerably high variability compared to the Colombian site. The model indicates that for every 1 degrees C rise in thermal optimum (T-opt), the maximum intrinsic rate of increase (r(max)) will increase by an average of 8.5%. The effects of climate change on the further range of H. hampei distribution and possible adaption strategies are discussed. Abstracts in Spanish and French are provided as supplementary material Abstract S1 and Abstract S2.