THE CARE SPAN Population Aging And Emergency Departments: Visits Will Not Increase, Lengths-Of-Stay And Hospitalizations Will
THE CARE SPAN Population Aging And Emergency Departments: Visits Will Not Increase, Lengths-Of-Stay And Hospitalizations Will
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DOI：
10.1377/hlthaff.2012.0951
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发表时间：
2013-07-01
期刊：
影响因子：
9.7
通讯作者：
Bohan, J. Stephen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Pallin, Daniel J.;Allen, Matthew B.;Bohan, J. Stephen
美国的急诊护理被称为“处于临界点”，我们研究了美国人口老龄化将如何影响未来几十年对急诊科 (ED) 服务和住院治疗的需求。我们将当前特定年龄的急诊就诊率应用于人口普查局预计到 2050 年的人口结构。我们的结果表明，人口老龄化不会导致急诊就诊次数的增加超过人口增长的预期。然而，数据确实预测了就诊时间和住院可能性的增加。因此，全国范围内患者在急诊室花费的总时间将比人口增长速度快 10%。这意味着即使就诊次数不增加，急诊科的容量也必须增加 10%。急诊室入院人数的增长速度将比人口增长速度快 23%，这将要求医院扩大容量的速度要快于原始人口增长所需的速度。
With US emergency care characterized as "at the breaking point," we studied how the aging of the US population would affect demand for emergency department (ED) services and hospitalizations in the coming decades. We applied current age-specific ED visit rates to the population structure anticipated by the Census Bureau to exist through 2050. Our results indicate that the aging of the population will not cause the number of ED visits to increase any more than would be expected from population growth. However, the data do predict increases in visit lengths and the likelihood of hospitalization. As a result, the aggregate amount of time patients spend in EDs nationwide will increase 10 percent faster than population growth. This means that ED capacity will have to increase by 10 percent, even without an increase in the number of visits. Hospital admissions from the ED will increase 23 percent faster than population growth, which will require hospitals to expand capacity faster than required by raw population growth alone.