CHAOS AND BIOLOGICAL COMPLEXITY IN MEASLES DYNAMICS
CHAOS AND BIOLOGICAL COMPLEXITY IN MEASLES DYNAMICS
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DOI：
10.1098/rspb.1993.0011
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发表时间：
1993-01-22
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
GRENFELL, BT
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
BOLKER, BM;GRENFELL, BT
麻疹流行病学提供了一个独特的视角来构建模型来描述生态系统的动态。麻疹传播的简单模型可以通过各种机制产生确定性混沌。然而，将更多的生物现实主义纳入模型，以年龄结构和季节强迫函数的现实主义的形式，可以抑制复杂的动态。在模型中加入随机项可以恢复复杂的动态，但也会对这些模型中的人口规模和人口结构提出新的问题。
Measles epidemiology offers a unique perspective on the construction of models to describe the dynamics of ecological systems. Simple models of measles transmission can generate deterministic chaos by various mechanisms. However, incorporating more biological realism into the model, in the form of age structure and realism in the seasonal forcing function, can suppress complex dynamics. Adding stochastic terms to the models restores complex dynamics, but raises new questions about demographic scale and population structure in these models.