Electricity consumption-economic growth Nexus: An aggregated and disaggregated causality analysis in India and Pakistan
Electricity consumption-economic growth Nexus: An aggregated and disaggregated causality analysis in India and Pakistan
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jpolmod.2012.09.001
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发表时间：
2013-07-01
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Choudhury, Nirmalya
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Abbas, Faisal;Choudhury, Nirmalya
本文实证检验了南亚两个人口稠密国家印度和巴基斯坦的电力消耗与经济增长之间的因果关系。因果关系分析是在汇总和分类层面进行估计的，其中分析的重点是农业部门。分类因果关系分析表明，印度农业用电量与农业GDP之间存在双向因果关系，而巴基斯坦则发现农业用电量与农业用电量之间存在因果关系。在总体水平上，印度证实了保护假说，而巴基斯坦证实了反馈假说。从公共政策的角度来看，可以推断，在宏观层面，印度的任何节电措施都不会影响印度不断增长的经济增长前景，因此政策偏爱的增加发电量的供应战略需要与需求管理战略相平衡。就巴基斯坦而言，鉴于因果关系的双向性质，任何此类政策建议都是困难的。 (C) 2012 年政策建模学会。由爱思唯尔公司出版。保留所有权利。
This paper empirically examined the causality between electricity consumption and economic growth in two densely populated countries in South Asia, India and Pakistan. The causality analysis was estimated at aggregated and disaggregated level where the focus of the analysis was on the agricultural sector. The disaggregated causality analysis indicated a bi-directional causality between the agricultural electricity consumption and the agricultural GDP in India, while in Pakistan the causality was found to run from agricultural GDP to agricultural electricity consumption. At the aggregated level, India confirmed conservation hypothesis while Pakistan confirmed feedback hypothesis. From the public policy point of view, it can be inferred that, at the macro level, any electricity conservation measures in India will not have an affect on India's increasing economic growth prospects and hence a policy-favourite supply-enhancement strategy in the form of increasing electricity generation needs to be balanced with a demand-management strategy. In case of Pakistan any such policy recommendation is difficult given the bidirectional nature of causality. (C) 2012 Society for Policy Modeling. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.