DEFORESTATION TRENDS IN TROPICAL AFRICA
DEFORESTATION TRENDS IN TROPICAL AFRICA
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1365-2028.1990.tb01150.x
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发表时间：
1990-09-01
影响因子：
1
通讯作者：
BARNES, RFW
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
BARNES, RFW
通过分析粮农组织/环境规划署（1981年）森林资源调查公布的统计数字，审查了热带非洲几内亚-刚果雨林的毁林现象。评估毁林率最适当的参数不是每年森林砍伐面积的百分比，而是每年绝对砍伐面积。决定这一比率的两个最重要的变量是人口规模和剩余森林面积。利用这些结果的一个简单模型警告说，在未来50年里，整个非洲大陆的森林将急剧减少。有一个负反馈系统，它的作用是减缓森林砍伐的速度。如果由于大规模采伐或农业转型而无法实现这一目标，森林砍伐就会进入一个不断加速的阶段。加蓬和刚果将是仅有的两个不会失去大量森林的国家。
The phenonemon of deforestation in the Guinea-Congolian rain forests of tropical Africa is examined by analysing the statistics published by the FAO/UNEP (1981) survey of forest resources. The most appropriate parameter to use in assessing deforestation rate is not the percentage of the area of forest felled per annum but the absolute area felled per annum. The two most important variables determining this rate are the size of the human population and the area of remaining forest. A simple model using these results warns of dramatic forest loss across the African continent during the next 50 years. There is a negative feedback system, which acts to slow the rate of deforestation. If this fails to operate, due to intense logging or agro-conversion, deforestation enters an ever-accelerating phase. Gabon and Congo will be the only countries which will not lose a large proportion of their forests.