Adolescents display distinctive tolerance to ambiguity and to uncertainty during risky decision making.
Adolescents display distinctive tolerance to ambiguity and to uncertainty during risky decision making.
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DOI：
10.1038/srep40962
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发表时间：
2017-01-18
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Hertwig R
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
van den Bos W;Hertwig R
尽管精算数据表明冒险行为在青春期达到高峰，但这种发展高峰的实验室证据仍然很少。对这种不一致的一种可能解释是，在真实的世界中，青少年对自己行为的潜在后果以及这些后果发生的可能性往往只有模糊的信息，而在实验室中，这些信息往往是明确的。在这种更加现实的模糊和不确定的情况下，青少年的行为如何？我们要求105名年龄在8岁到22岁之间的参与者做出三种类型的选择：（1）在可能的结果和概率被充分描述的选项之间做出选择（风险下的选择）;（2）在可能结果已描述但概率信息不完全的选项之间进行选择（模糊性下的选择），以及（3）未知选项之间的选择，其可能的结果和概率可以探索（不确定性下的选择）。相对于儿童和成人，出现了两种特异性标记物。首先，青少年更容易接受模糊性;其次，他们也更容易接受不确定性（如较短的决策前搜索）。此外，这种对未知事物的容忍与动机因素有关，而与认知因素无关。这些发现为青少年冒险心理提供了新的见解。
Although actuarial data indicate that risk-taking behavior peaks in adolescence, laboratory evidence for this developmental spike remains scarce. One possible explanation for this incongruity is that in the real world adolescents often have only vague information about the potential consequences of their behavior and the likelihoods of those consequences, whereas in the lab these are often clearly stated. How do adolescents behave under such more realistic conditions of ambiguity and uncertainty? We asked 105 participants aged from 8 to 22 years to make three types of choices: (1) choices between options whose possible outcomes and probabilities were fully described (choices under risk); (2) choices between options whose possible outcomes were described but whose probability information was incomplete (choices under ambiguity), and (3) choices between unknown options whose possible outcomes and probabilities could be explored (choices under uncertainty). Relative to children and adults, two adolescent-specific markers emerged. First, adolescents were more accepting of ambiguity; second, they were also more accepting of uncertainty (as indicated by shorter pre-decisional search). Furthermore, this tolerance of the unknown was associated with motivational, but not cognitive, factors. These findings offer novel insights into the psychology of adolescent risk taking.