A quantitative assessment of the consistency of projections from five mathematical models of the HIV epidemic in South Africa: a model comparison study.
A quantitative assessment of the consistency of projections from five mathematical models of the HIV epidemic in South Africa: a model comparison study.
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DOI：
10.1186/s12889-023-16995-9
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发表时间：
2023-10-27
影响因子：
4.5
通讯作者：
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
数学模型越来越多地被用来为艾滋病毒政策和规划提供信息。比较使用不同数学模型获得的估计，可以测试估计的稳健性，并突出研究差距。作为一个旨在确定艾滋病毒服务资金最佳分配的更大项目的一部分，在这项研究中，我们比较了南非艾滋病毒流行的五个数学模型的预测：EMOD-HIV、GOALS、艾滋病毒-合成、OPTIMA和Thembisa。这五个模型小组对总人口、艾滋病毒发病率、艾滋病毒流行率、被诊断为艾滋病毒携带者的比例、抗逆转录病毒治疗覆盖率、接受抗逆转录病毒疗法的患者比例、艾滋病相关死亡人数、总死亡人数以及成年男性接受割礼的比例进行了估计。估计数是在1990年至2040年期间的“现状”设想下作出的。对于每个输出变量，我们通过计算变异系数并检查随时间变化的趋势来评估模型估计的一致性。对于大多数产出而言，1990至2005年间模型间的变异性很大，当时可供校准的数据有限，2005至2025年间的一致性较好，而且在接近预测期结束时变异性越来越大。对艾滋病毒发病率、艾滋病毒携带者死亡和总死亡人数的估计显示出最大的长期变异性，标准偏差在交叉模型平均值的35%至65%之间。尽管存在这种差异，但所有模型都预测，从长远来看，艾滋病毒发病率将逐渐下降。与艾滋病规划署95-95-95目标有关的预测更加一致，除儿童外，所有群体的变异系数都在0.1以下。虽然模型对几项产出产生了一致的估计，但也有一些可变性的领域需要调查。如果要在随后的成本效益研究中使用预测，这一点很重要。网上版载有补充材料，可在10.1186/s12889-023-16995-9查阅。
Mathematical models are increasingly used to inform HIV policy and planning. Comparing estimates obtained using different mathematical models can test the robustness of estimates and highlight research gaps. As part of a larger project aiming to determine the optimal allocation of funding for HIV services, in this study we compare projections from five mathematical models of the HIV epidemic in South Africa: EMOD-HIV, Goals, HIV-Synthesis, Optima, and Thembisa. The five modelling groups produced estimates of the total population, HIV incidence, HIV prevalence, proportion of people living with HIV who are diagnosed, ART coverage, proportion of those on ART who are virally suppressed, AIDS-related deaths, total deaths, and the proportion of adult males who are circumcised. Estimates were made under a “status quo” scenario for the period 1990 to 2040. For each output variable we assessed the consistency of model estimates by calculating the coefficient of variation and examining the trend over time. For most outputs there was significant inter-model variability between 1990 and 2005, when limited data was available for calibration, good consistency from 2005 to 2025, and increasing variability towards the end of the projection period. Estimates of HIV incidence, deaths in people living with HIV, and total deaths displayed the largest long-term variability, with standard deviations between 35 and 65% of the cross-model means. Despite this variability, all models predicted a gradual decline in HIV incidence in the long-term. Projections related to the UNAIDS 95–95-95 targets were more consistent, with the coefficients of variation below 0.1 for all groups except children. While models produced consistent estimates for several outputs, there are areas of variability that should be investigated. This is important if projections are to be used in subsequent cost-effectiveness studies. The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-023-16995-9.
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影响因子：
--
作者：
Korenromp EL;Bershteyn A;Mudimu E;Weiner R;Bonecwe C;Loykissoonlal D;Manuhwa C;Pretorius C;Teng Y;Stover J;Johnson LF
通讯作者：
Johnson LF
影响因子：
8.3
作者：
Cowie, Christine T.;Garden, Frances;Marks, Guy B.
通讯作者：
Marks, Guy B.
影响因子：
34.3
作者：
Eaton, Jeffrey W.;Bacaer, Nicolas;Hallett, Timothy B.
通讯作者：
Hallett, Timothy B.
DOI：
10.2471/blt.11.086280
发表时间：
2011-04-01
期刊：
Bulletin of the World Health Organization: International Journal of Public Health
影响因子：
--
作者：
Birnbaum, Jeanette Kurian;Murray, Christopher JL;Lozano, Rafael
通讯作者：
Lozano, Rafael
影响因子：
168.9
作者：
Brisson, Marc;Kim, Jane J.;Hutubessy, Raymond
通讯作者：
Hutubessy, Raymond