The Chance of Winning Election Impacts on Social Media Strategy
The Chance of Winning Election Impacts on Social Media Strategy
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DOI：
10.48550/arxiv.2301.07282
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发表时间：
2023-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Taichi Murayama;Akira Matsui;K. Miyazaki;Yasuko Matsubara;Yasushi Sakurai
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Taichi Murayama;Akira Matsui;K. Miyazaki;Yasuko Matsubara;Yasushi Sakurai
社交媒体一直是政治人物竞选活动的重要舞台。虽然许多研究一直在关注与党派之争相关的政治竞选活动，但政客们也可以根据自己的获胜机会进行不同的竞选活动。例如，领先候选人在选举中的表现与边缘候选人不同，反之亦然。然而，根据他们在选举中的胜算，我们对社交媒体政治竞选策略的这种差异知之甚少。我们通过从用户、话题和回复情绪的角度分析候选人的推文来解决这个问题。我们的研究发现，随着获胜机会的增加，候选人会缩小他们与之交流的目标，从一般的人到电子区域和特定的人(经过验证的账户或有很多追随者的账户)。我们的研究通过对候选人选举情况的新视角的分析，为候选人的竞选策略提供了新的见解。
Social media has been a paramount arena for election campaigns for political actors. While many studies have been paying attention to the political campaigns related to partisanship, politicians also can conduct different campaigns according to their chances of winning. Leading candidates, for example, do not behave the same as fringe candidates in their elections, and vice versa. We, however, know little about this difference in social media political campaign strategies according to their odds in elections. We tackle this problem by analyzing candidates' tweets in terms of users, topics, and sentiment of replies. Our study finds that, as their chances of winning increase, candidates narrow the targets they communicate with, from people in general to the electrical districts and specific persons (verified accounts or accounts with many followers). Our study brings new insights into the candidates' campaign strategies through the analysis based on the novel perspective of the candidate's electoral situation.