Future developments in modelling and monitoring of volcanic ash clouds: outcomes from the first IAVCEI-WMO workshop on Ash Dispersal Forecast and Civil Aviation
Future developments in modelling and monitoring of volcanic ash clouds: outcomes from the first IAVCEI-WMO workshop on Ash Dispersal Forecast and Civil Aviation
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DOI：
10.1007/s00445-011-0508-6
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发表时间：
2012-01-01
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Puempel, Herbert
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bonadonna, Costanza;Folch, Arnau;Puempel, Herbert
2010年Eyjafjallajokull火山喷发（冰岛）对民用航空造成严重后果，来自12个不同国家的52名火山学家、气象学家、大气扩散建模师以及空间和地面监测专家（包括来自6个火山灰咨询中心和相关机构的代表）齐聚一堂，讨论了火山灰扩散建模界的需求。调查新的数据获取策略（即定量测量和观察），并讨论如何改善研究界与具有业务任务的机构之间的沟通。通过专门的基准测试和为期3天的深入讨论，对未来的模型改进、灰云预测的新策略、多学科数据采集和不同社区之间更有效的沟通提出了建议。研讨会讨论的问题包括火山灰扩散模型、不确定性、集合预测、结合扩散模型和观测、敏感性分析、模型变率、数据获取、喷发前预测、首次模拟和数据同化、研究重点和改善信息流和操作程序的新通信策略。作为一个主要结论，模型开发者、气象学家、火山学家和利益相关者需要密切合作，为火山灰扩散预测制定新的和改进的战略，特别是：(1)改进源项的定义；(2)设计能够更好地表征不确定性的模型和预测策略；(3)探索和确定适用于火山灰扩散预测的最佳集成策略；(4)确定模型与观测相结合的优化策略；(5)实施新的关键操作策略。
As a result of the serious consequences of the 2010 Eyjafjallajokull eruption (Iceland) on civil aviation, 52 volcanologists, meteorologists, atmospheric dispersion modellers and space and ground-based monitoring specialists from 12 different countries (including representatives from 6 Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres and related institutions) gathered to discuss the needs of the ash dispersal modelling community, investigate new data-acquisition strategies (i.e. quantitative measurements and observations) and discuss how to improve communication between the research community and institutions with an operational mandate. Based on a dedicated benchmark exercise and on 3 days of in-depth discussion, recommendations have been made for future model improvements, new strategies of ash cloud forecasting, multidisciplinary data acquisition and more efficient communication between different communities. Issues addressed in the workshop include ash dispersal modelling, uncertainty, ensemble forecasting, combining dispersal models and observations, sensitivity analysis, model variability, data acquisition, pre-eruption forecasting, first simulation and data assimilation, research priorities and new communication strategies to improve information flow and operational routines. As a main conclusion, model developers, meteorologists, volcanologists and stakeholders need to work closely together to develop new and improved strategies for ash dispersal forecasting and, in particular, to: (1) improve the definition of the source term, (2) design models and forecasting strategies that can better characterize uncertainties, (3) explore and identify the best ensemble strategies that can be adapted to ash dispersal forecasting, (4) identify optimized strategies for the combination of models and observations and (5) implement new critical operational strategies.