Predictive accuracy and usefulness of calibration of the ESC SCORE in Switzerland
Predictive accuracy and usefulness of calibration of the ESC SCORE in Switzerland
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DOI：
10.1097/hjr.0b013e3282fb040f
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发表时间：
2008-08-01
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Vollenweider, Peter
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Marques-Vidal, Pedro;Rodondi, Nicolas;Vollenweider, Peter
背景心血管疾病（CVD）在个体水平上的预防应依赖于使用人群特异性风险表（population-specific risk tables.Objective）对绝对风险的评估，比较原始SCORE函数和校准SCORE函数对瑞士10年心血管风险的预测准确性。基于人群的研究（5773名参与者，年龄35-74岁）。方法SCORE方程为低风险国家校准的基础上，瑞士心血管疾病死亡率和心血管疾病的危险因素水平的研究样本。根据原始和校正后的方程以及2003年的心血管死亡率，计算出10年后的心血管死亡预测数。结果根据原始和校正后的方程，10年内分别有16.3%和15.8%的男性和8.2%和8.9%的女性有心血管死亡的风险！百分之五两种功能的一致性相关系数男性为0.951，女性为0.948，均P < 0.001。两个风险函数都充分预测了10年累积的心血管疾病死亡人数：在男性中，使用心血管疾病死亡率时，73例死亡中有71例（原始）和74例（校准）死亡;在女性中，分别为44例（原始），45例（校准）和45例（心血管疾病死亡率）。与原始函数相比，校准函数将更多的女性和更少的男性归类为高风险。此外，校准功能更好的风险估计年龄超过65 years.Conclusion原来的SCORE功能充分预测心血管疾病死亡在瑞士，特别是年龄小于65岁的个人。校准函数为老年人提供了更可靠的估计。欧洲心脏病学会康复杂志15：402-408（c）2008
Background Prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) at the individual level should rely on the assessment of absolute risk using population-specific risk tables.Objective To compare the predictive accuracy of the original and the calibrated SCORE functions regarding 10-year cardiovascular risk in Switzerland.Design Cross-sectional, population-based study (5773 participants aged 35-74 years).Methods The SCORE equation for low-risk countries was calibrated based on the Swiss CVD mortality rates and on the CVD risk factor levels from the study sample. The predicted number of CVD deaths after a 10-year period was computed from the original and the calibrated equations and from the observed cardiovascular mortality for 2003.Results According to the original and calibrated functions, 16.3 and 15.8% of men and 8.2 and 8.9% of women, respectively, had a 10-year CVD risk !! 5%. Concordance correlation coefficient between the two functions was 0.951 for men and 0.948 for women, both P < 0.001. Both risk functions adequately predicted the 10-year cumulative number of CVD deaths: in men, 71 (original) and 74 (calibrated) deaths for 73 deaths when using the CVD mortality rates; in women, 44 (original), 45 (calibrated) and 45 (CVD mortality rates), respectively. Compared to the original function, the calibrated function classified more women and fewer men at high-risk. Moreover, the calibrated function gave better risk estimates among participants aged over 65 years.Conclusion The original SCORE function adequately predicts CVD death in Switzerland, particularly for individuals aged less than 65 years. The calibrated function provides more reliable estimates for older individuals. Eur J Cardiovasc Prev Rehabil 15:402-408 (c) 2008 The European Society of Cardiology