Coupled ecological and social dynamics in a forested landscape: the deviation of individual decisions from the social optimum
Coupled ecological and social dynamics in a forested landscape: the deviation of individual decisions from the social optimum
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DOI：
10.1007/s11284-006-0167-9
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发表时间：
2006-05-01
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Iwasa, Yoh
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Satake, Akiko;Iwasa, Yoh
我们提出了一个马尔可夫链模型在森林景观的土地利用动态。该模型强调了景观变化背后的社会经济和生态过程耦合的重要性。我们假设一个森林是由许多地块，其中每一个是在一个有限的列表中的土地使用状态之一。各地块的土地利用状况是随机变化的。转移概率由森林演替和土地所有者决策两个过程决定。土地所有者倾向于选择具有高期望贴现效用的土地使用状态，即，该地块的当前和未来效用的总和。土地所有者在决策时考虑到未来景观变化的可能性。我们专注于一个三态模型，其中森林，农业和废弃的国家被认为是。分析了均衡状态下的土地利用结构，并与使社会中所有土地所有者的净利益最大化的社会最优状态进行了比较。我们表明，当土地所有者作出短视的选择，专注于短期利益，他们的个人决定往往会推动整个景观向农业国家，即使森林状态代表最高的效用。这种平衡状态下的土地利用结构与社会最优状态大不相同。从长期管理的角度出发，提高森林恢复率，可以消除这种差异。
We present a Markov chain model for land-use dynamics in a forested landscape. This model emphasizes the importance of coupling socioeconomic and ecological processes underlying landscape change. We assume that a forest is composed of many land parcels, each of which is in one of a finite list of land-use states. The land-use state of each land parcel changes stochastically. The transition probability is determined by two processes: the forest succession and the decision of landowners. The landowner tends to choose the land-use state which has a high expected discounted utility, i.e., the sum of the current and the future utilities of the land parcel. Landowners take the likelihood of future landscape changes into account when making decisions. We focus on a three-state model in which forested, agricultural, and abandoned states are considered. The land-use composition at equilibrium was analyzed and compared with the social optimum that maximizes the net benefit of all landowners in a society. We show that when landowners make a myopic choice focused on short-term benefits, their individual decisions tend to push the entire landscape toward an agricultural state even if the forested state represents the highest utility. This land-use composition at equilibrium is very different from the social optimum. A long-term management perspective and an enhanced rate of forest recovery can eliminate the discrepancy.